tradero, Herbst may be closest to PPHM in placebo arm, but I recall FTM's original table showing the variation in events with various trials under consideration. I am pleased you agree "we are somehow speculating", and "exact data" is not a given. I prefer to wait for actual data from Sunrise trial as finally reported and analyzed by PPHM and its consultants.
I wonder whether the Herbst trial would have been sufficiently repeatable with "precise statistical behaviour[and events] from[in] the Placebo Arm" to give you the estimation you seek = to "a decent enough order of magnitude." With your reservations, I will accept your opinion, subject to my own reservations.
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