Replies to post #252679 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[tradero]

No harm in accepting an opinion... Accepting it does not mean believing in it

Anyway, as the saying goes: There are lies, damned lies and statistics

But, hey speculating is more fun than reading negative stuff about PPHM, at least for me

[Protector]

north, Herbst et al. 2010 is as close as one will get to an example.

-> Control Arm
-> Same ECOG groups for 98% of the population
-> Very close to same amount of patients
-> Also 2 arms

SO its 9.8 (or was it 9.9) mounts MOS for the control arm will be VERY close.

And by the way, applying Herbst et al. 2010 would give use about/approx 165 events from the placebo arm for SUNRISE (today). That is strange because 165 events on 291 enrolled is normal for that placebo arm BUT what about the Bavi arm.

Depending on whether we use 173 or after jbainseky's remark maybe better 182 events to be the 33% it in all cases mean that the control arm did NOT contribute 182-165=17 events to the TOTAL # of events because otherwise we would had have the 1st look-in. Even with ZERO tolerance (we use 582 as the base for the 33% which is the absolute worst case) then 192-165=27.

So I am expecting EXTREMELY GOOD results from SUNRISE. And if we enter MARCH without first look-in then I might joint the people that say there is a chance for surprises. Although I understand also exwannabe's explanation about the alpha. If with not looking at efficacy CEO King means that no alpha has been assigned then I don't know what the procedure is to for instance stop the trial for Ethical reasons. There also they see very good results and could they assign the alpha at that moment? No idea.