Replies to post #1315 on Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[Rocky3]

I think that the focus should be on the quarter ending 6/30/16, not 3/30/16.

US sales will be down again next quarter. V-Pak script counts are down 20% QOQ at this point. I would expect Europe should be strong again, but the real growth should be in Japan in the following quarter. The way that HCV sales have grown so far is that it takes a few quarters for the new scripts to translate into total scripts. It happened with Sovaldi and then with Harvoni. I expect GILD Japan revenue to be up significantly in the March quarter, and then to decline in the June quarter, mostly because of mandated price reductions.

So for the March quarter, I would hope that the ABBV gross HCV sales should be up, but not by a huge amount. The change in the royalty payments should help even more. The real increase I would expect in the June quarter, assuming that ABBV/ENTA does as well in Japan as it has done in Europe. JMO.