You are right on about the magnitude of factors that needs to be considered. Between CLDX, IMUC and NWBO my hope is one is approved eventually. They all trade with a fairly strong group correlation. IF CLDX gets approval then I think the overall cohort will see a nice uptick, primarily because it highlights a breakthrough in immunotherapy for GBM. I am not invested in CLDX however. IMUC is 6 plus years away from any approval, with enrollment and IAs happening in the interim. IMUC's fate depends a great deal on what happens with NWBO. NWBO has the orphan drug designation and with a full throated approval of DCVAX-L IMUC would have a hard time making a go of it, despite the overall positive impression of GBM immunotherapy that it would indicate. IF DCVAX-L is not approved because of confounding issues, but with some indications of efficacy, IMUC would get more attention because of the SPA and similar method of action.
Long answer, I know. There are moving parts. IMUC's current price and market cap, given their cash position, and the almost $20M grant to conduct the phase III trial, indicates that the market doesn't assign much chances of success to their drug, or that the market believes other therapies will get to market before ICT-107.
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