Replies to post #71292 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

Disagree. These guys (including myself, but I'm not betting) are confident that it will be stopped at interim, so there shouldn't be any odds given. They're not saying it's a long shot, they're saying it's more likely to happen than not.

[Whalatane]

nycbiotech .....Wow.

I'm impressed . You saw right thru my ploy .

Well done
Kiwi
Ps

And no I'll certainly not do a 20-1 odds bet with you ..:>)

[sts66]

So according to you, the odds that R-IT gets halted at interim are 20:1? That sure goes against all of the RRR's being calculated around here - all of which say if placebo rate is >= 5.2%, the RRR is well above the min 15%, and at least as high as the 22% most believe is needed to halt the trial. Those numbers make it look like the odds are > 1:2 for a halt, not the reverse like you are claiming - Kiwi should get $1000 if he puts up $500 if the counterparty really believes those numbers are anywhere close to accurate - or just stick to 1:1, a simplistic "it will get halted or it won't", either or.