Replies to post #70495 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[biotech_researcher]

1. Denner is positioning not on Mkt Caps or Revs but more so on an intrinsic value that is not based on pure numbers. He is or will pitch Ariad as a known entity that has developed drugs as a skilled team with experience and success. That is so valuable to a big drug company especially if it is filling a void in their own ability and pipeline. Denner's job is finding that niche and then presenting in a way to maximize return. He has done it before and IMHO he will do it with this company.

2. Hopefully, a bidding war of sorts will break out where there is 2 or more interested parties as the news comes out. Based on little news in the past many months, Denner is holding his cards close and wanting to play them for all they are worth. He knows that he has one shot at it and is the person to get results based on past experience and performance. This is a pro at the highest level who will be running and holding the auction.

3. I think that the hedge funds will be looking at least 4-5 times their acquisition pps level. Also, Ariad had a history of the mid-twenties before mismanagement led us to this level.

Many may disagree with this analysis but it is my best shot at what I think will happen in time. The holes are not per se with the logic but rather with the absolute numbers. At this point, Denner in selling the company is an artist/engineer/salesman not a logical scientist. In a nutshell, the buyout price is not all about logic but rather what some company is willing to pay based on need and potential not just a future revenue level. With that I absolutely respect your approach and it always could go for less.....that's just not what I think at this point. Thanks to you too. With respect.

--not based on real numbers
--hopefully..
--I think

I do not think this is how the market works..

[vidpok45]

For validation of your theory that Ariad is worth more than the sum of its parts, reviewing Denner's previous deals reveals the premium above the revenue from the products he has been able to attain for those companies. The Denner "factor" is an intangible part of whatever eventual price Ariad will achieve in the buyout which can't be readily calculated as you said.

[Whosetosay]

flex, Thanks for the reply.

As I said, I'd be thrilled with that sort of payout but am increasingly doubtful as to whether it is achievable.

The Barclay's opinion just posted says it pretty clearly. To get beyond their $6 target (IMO that translates to a $10-$12 b/o today, $18 if we get gigantic '113, '788 news, and an ONYX type deal), we'd need to support this company out through 2018. I'm not sure what else remains to be possibly sold off for more cash except for actual molecules, or gulp, stock (if they can find takers). There just won't be enough cash. With 1500 ramping into new trials, that's probably more costly than all the Pona and '113 trials before it, combined. And those other trials are still running, losing us $40M-$50 a quarter. All the study news that LUNA posts is very good research, and the fact it has done nothing for the pps is sobering.

So Q4 US, '113 and '788 news in a few weeks (I think), that will tell us a lot about whatever PP has to say, whether folly or fortune.