Replies to post #280272 on Option Millionaires

[uranium-pinto-beans]

Critical information before the U.S. market's open
The year is clearly off to an inglorious start. It's been the worst four-day start for the S&P 500 literally since the invention of sliced bread (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928).
But as the week groans to an end, some signs of calm are surfacing. In China , authorities removed the circuit-breaker candy and markets didn't panic, making way for U.S. stock futures to rip higher. At least for now.
(

Chinese photoshop a tombstone to mock suspension of #circuitbreaker: "You had your 15 min of fame. Twice actually" pic.twitter.com/8o7J6BnEuE

— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) January 8, 2016

)
We're hours away from tallying up the official first week of trade, but some say the first five days reveal the market's direction for the whole year. Here's a flashback to 2012 when Mark Hulbert called the five-day indicator a bunch of hooey (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-first-five-days-of-january-indicator-2012-01-11). In 2015, the S&P 500 finished down 0.7% after dropping 1.6% in its first four days of trading. And in 2014, the market ripped up 11% even after a 0.6% drop at the start of the year. Early days indeed.
But you don't have to travel far to find those who think the market overreacted to a known factor this week. " China has been slowing for over a year, and no one believes the overly optimistic economic growth numbers the Communist government is putting out. If China weakness was going to take us down, it would have happened by now," says CrackedMarket's (http://crackedmarket.com/) Jani Ziedins . Our chart of the day takes this a bit further.
Anyway, Ziedins expects today's payrolls data to prove all this hand-wringing over China and oil matter less when the U.S. economy is chugging along just fine. Yes, U.S. jobs data, lost in the China smog of this week. And it just came in better than forecast, along with an October upward revision.
On to our call of the day. A fresh survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch says yesterday's shenanigans have helped create a contrarian buy signal.
Key market gauges
Futures (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-dow-eyes-triple-digit-gain-after-china-ends-higher-2016-01-08) for the Dow and the S&P are ripping higher, after jobs data and the Shanghai Composite rose 2% without the circuit-breaker in place. China stocks (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-gain-in-volatile-trading-2016-01-07) are still off nearly 10% this week. Oil (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-rebound-as-china-stocks-battle-back-2016-01-08) was cruising well over 2% higher, but is up under 1% now.
Elsewhere, Europe (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-climb-but-set-for-worst-week-since-august-2016-01-08) is moving higher. Gold is getting kicked fairly hard as it and havens like Japanese yen got a drubbing as panic ebbed in China . Hence, the dollar (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-supported-by-steady-gains-for-nikkei-2015-12-30) is up nicely.
The call of the day
The worst four-day start in history for the S&P 500 has helped usher in a "contrarian buy signal," says Michael Hartnett , chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch . Flows tracking up to Jan. 6 show $8.8 billion has drained out of global equity funds, with U.S. stock funds bearing the brunt of that. He notes there have been no "panic redemptions" from the Europe / Japan /emerging market equity funds.
"The best reason to be bullish right now is there are so few reasons to be bullish," writes Hartnett in a note.
He said Thursday's action has triggered the BofAML Global Breadth Rule, which measures the percentage of global equity markets trading below 200- and 50-day moving averages. His chart shows that 88% of those markets are now below those levels.
Plus, the BofAML Bull & Bear index is at 1.3, where zero is the most bearish, 10 the most bullish. With investor sentiment that bearish, asset prices should bounce soon, Hartnett believes.
For now, he says be long cash and volatility and be ready for a "short sharp pullback in risk assets." That is, at least until purchasing managers indexes go back over 50 in China and the U.S., or a spike in volatility or an asset price reset causes the Fed to pause on rate hikes.
The economy
Nonfarm payrolls have just hit, and the U.S. economy added 292,000 jobs for December (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-creates-292000-jobs-in-december-unemployment-5-2016-01-08), over the 215,000 that was expected. Employment gains for November and October, meanwhile, were revised up by a combined 50,000. Hourly wages fell a penny to $25.24 , which was a surprise.
The chart of the day
Here's a tweet by Oxford Economics that shows just how much a Chinese hard landing would affect the U.S. At a negative 0.7% hit, only Finland fares better.
(

Our estimates of GDP impact of China hard landing
(1) advanced economies pic.twitter.com/VZ0cttuD7k

— Gabriel Sterne (@GabrielSterne) January 8, 2016

)
(Also read a take by MarketWatch's Sue Chang on this (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-panic-over-might-be-overdone-2016-01-07))
Earnings
Gap (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gap-december-sales-fall-5-shares-tumble-2016-01-07-164854933)(GPS) is down 8% after core sales fell 5% in December. Bed, Bath & Beyond (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bed-bath-beyond-profit-falls-2016-01-07-184854035)(BBBY) is up 1%. Profits fell in its latest quarter on a drop in sales at existing stores.
Apple supplier Cirrus Logic (CRUS) cut revenue guidance (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-supplier-cirrus-falls-3-premarket-after-guidance-cut-2016-01-08) for its December quarter on weaker-than-expected demand for some of its portable audio products. Shares are down 3% in premarket action.
The buzz
Prosecutors revealed Thursday (http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2016/01/07/martin-shkreli-secures-bond-with-45-million-personal-etrade-account/) that a $45 million E*Trade account belonging to Martin Shkreli will be used to secure a $5 million bond. Shrkeli was arrested last month on securities fraud charges.
Boeing (BA) delivered a record 762 jetliners in 2015 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeing-commercial-plane-deliveries-rise-for-2015-2016-01-07). Shares are up 1.5% in premarket.
Ford (F) says it set a China sales record for December and for 2015 and shares are up 2%.
Alcoa (AA) gained premarket after the aluminum giant announced plans to shut smelter operations in Indiana (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alcoa-to-close-facility-curtail-capacity-leading-to-120-million-charge-2016-01-07) and curtail refining capacity in Texas .
The quote
"It feels like they have lost control, they don't have a plan." -- Oliver Barron , head of research at investment bank North Square Blue Oak (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-gain-in-volatile-trading-2016-01-07), describes a lack of faith in Chinese authorities after this week's circuit-breaker debacle.
The stat
10 -- that's how many bouts of severe weather will lead to billion-dollar losses for the U.S. last year due to El Niño and global warming (http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/01/07/us-hit-by-10-billion-dollar-weather-disasters-in-2015/)
Random reads
U.S. missile sent to Europe for training push, ends up in Cuba (http://www.wsj.com/articles/missing-u-s-missile-shows-up-in-cuba-1452213667).
ISIS fighter reportedly executes his own mother (http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/07/middleeast/isis-fighter-executes-mother-reports/index.html)
Fame via smooshing one's face into bread products (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/style/this-is-her-face-this-is-her-face-in-bread-any-questions.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0)
(http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/style/this-is-her-face-this-is-her-face-in-bread-any-questions.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0) White House wants Silicon Valley to help it battle Islamic State (http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-us-recruits-tech-leaders-to-help-disrupt-islamic-state-group-2016-1)
(http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-us-recruits-tech-leaders-to-help-disrupt-islamic-state-group-2016-1)Another Shanghai businessman goes missing (http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-anticorruption-agency-investigating-official-linked-to-fosun-1452223801)
Rarest dime in the world sells for $2 million (http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/08/luxury/dime-auction-2-million/).
(http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-british-couple-convicted-of-preparing-london-attack-2015-12)Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.
- Barbara Kollmeyer ; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires