Replies to post #242869 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[bobba_gadoosh]

Excellent post RRdog EOM.

[stevedazs]

Thanks RRdog...........Superb!!!!!!!!

[volgoat]

Yep. Terrible deal with Dart and always late is for sure. Odds are late with Sunrise enrollment.

They care Nothing about retail. We are just a plain on their butts.

[Almy]

Thanks RRdog.. I had to read it a few times just to get some of what you said.... been following Techniclone since April '83
Dug

[biopharm]

Great post RRdog and as usual, I have an opinion and will say where I disagree but I'd first like to start with your ending statement:

Condolences to our French allies and the people of Paris and to all freedom loving people. Again, "close timing" is impossible to predict, but, it is more important to know that the day of reckoning will come.

The day of reckoning will come and I do agree with mostly all of your post, except a little area. First, you do give some merit re: "Manhattan Project" as an analogy for what is going on behind the scenes with Peregrine....

There is an analogy hanging around this board that the PS/bavi platform is similar to the "Manhattan Project" that developed the atomic bomb. I think this analogy was first posited by MH. IMO there is real merit to this analogy only I would take it further and be more specific. The Manhattan Project and the building of Oak Ridge and the Nevada test sites was a monumental undertaking requiring huge resources that were "war scarce". The Roosevelt admin would not commit to the project until "the man"-- Albert Einstein-- sent a letter endorsing the feasibility of the project which was based on his work. (when you see that mushroom cloud you know that indeed E=mc 2)

.... and then also give mgmt a D- on recent funding.

I grade PPHM mgmt a (d-) on the recent funding--barely passing. They pass because they raised some needed funding to move forward on their clinicals, they put it in strong hands where the stock is not likely to come back on the open market, and it was a "clean" funding without fees. The reason I give it a barely passing grade is that anyone on this board could have sold plain vanilla common stock at $1.08 Ask yourself why we are paying this mgmt team millions of dollars for something any of us could do??????????????????????

.... I believe the enemy of our enemy just may be our friend in this case, because now someone.... family or whatever... is being diluted so to speak and Ken Dart never once sold (like BlackRock) and then immediately bought back in so yes, I completely agree that the funds went into a strong hand where the stock is not likely to come back on the open market. Maybe this was more important at this time.... vs taking any chance selling to someone else where Peregrine mgmt "MAY" have had to expose more to their "PLAN". Keeping it in house as much as possible just seems like the way they must play this out.

Lots of controversies though ... and only time will tell and I believe 100% that in time this management will be given that A grade since they could have been persuaded to sell us out cheaply and they have never done so like so many other small biotech management teams.

Great post again and I just hope Dr. Cohen and Dr. Finke also go public and pi$$ off Pfizer in saying that PS Targeting is required for the most optimal immune response with Sunitinib... or maybe Pfizer already knows this and other reasons to go after Allergan.

2016 looks like the year of disruption in biotech history and the Sunrises in Peregrines favor.

[md1225]

Thanks for the fair accounting the article was not for those here but rather the investment firms not aware of how close Peregrine is.

My next article is one I hope to end the story with Part 2 to "Wall Streets current Play" and that play will be with the company with the integral part of the cure.

[exwannabe]

Re: Debt being not doable.

The terms of PPHMP make the issuance of debt subject to approval of the series E holders. Since there is no reason at all for the PPHMP holders to agree, they could only issue the debt by buying that back.

In short, preferred or debt, but not both.

And they are almost the same anyway.

[Protector]

RRDog, thanks for this down to Earth and very clear post.

We may not agree on PPHM dilution but we don't have to. But we certainly agree an many other things among whom the general philosophy that reaching the end-goal is more important then small time or strategy changes along the road. I would personally find it miraculous if a company in biotech that depends on so many 3rd party events and participation, from centres over Doctors to patients, would be able to plan things TOPS on the week or mount.

And as a general sentiment, or lets maybe just make that a personal sentiment, I have the feeling a new 'dynamic' is with PPHM since the last quarterly and the MSK/AstraZeneca deals as if there is some awakening going on. I am interested to see if the new PR company progresses as you hope. We have no idea how far their mandate goes, but it is no secret that PPHM still has some distance to cover to come to good communication and promotion. You once wrote "this can be learned" (or something along those lines) on the subject. Well I find, from the last public appearances, that our CEO improved and of course that letting Worsley and Brekken speak certainly adds to the quality of communication. I am a Dr. Brekken fan but I think that is no secret and CERTAINLY doesn't mean I do not appreciate the work of other great PPHM minds such as Dr. Garnick and of course late Dr. Thorpe without whom we wouldn't probably be here.

As to Dr. Birge (Rutger's) and Dr. Wolchok (MSK). Those people HAVE a reputation. It is normal that they move slowly but surely because they are always working on the EDGE of new science in undiscovered area's where the risk for error and failure is bigger. They have MUCH to loose with wrong positions because they will follow them for the rest of their careers. Hence I think this is partial substantiation for one of massH's statements about some things that cannot be bought or paid for. Exactly that fact makes it so valuable if such people do speak about and endorse Bavituximab.

By being presents on PPHM's Friday evening event Birge actually made some implicit connection between PS-Targeting and Bavituximab in global immune checkpoint applications. Actually he presented the 'global' aspect and Brekken connected PS to Bavituximab. Ofcourse even better if indeed Brige names Bavituximab loud and clear.

And Wolchok, by letting him, or at least his team if we are not sure he was part of it, be entertained on the PPHM booth has also shown that PPHM isn't just a name on a list of MSK sponsoring collaborators who expect nothing more then name association with MSK and Wolchok's lab. He could get entertained on ANY BOOTH of his choice, even the very big ones since he has disclosed links with AstraZeneca, Roche, BMY and Merck. But yes, to the public and certainly Wall Street, him taking a favourable position or linking Bavituximab in a combo strategy would certainly not pass unnoticed. Possibly that are those catalysts that are on NO LIST because they resort of the category of surprise. We'll see.

#prayforparis

[cheynew]

Thanks for the insightful post RRDog. I differ on one point....it wasn't a quiet Sunday for Patriots fans! Another nice cliffhanger win for Team Brady.

[asmarterwookie]

Thanks for the analytical post RRdog. The big question that comes to mind regarding Darts investment is PEREGRINES need for immediate funding. If necessity is the mother of invention...then did the need outweigh the obvious terrible price?
Did Dart approach Peregrine or did Peregrine approach Dart?
Your post is the perfect outside looking in synopsis...but, what don't we know?

Thanks again,

wook

[CuresForHumanity]

RRdog - this was such a well thought out post. I wish I had time to write something even half as good :-) I voted no for the additional dilution, but oddly it didn't feel completely right to do so. I have nothing concrete to add on why I believe management has a plan and deserves higher than a D-, other than my intuition. So, let's see what grade they deserve next year this time!

[JamesGMS]

RRdog, Thank you for all your commentary and and for sharing your insights. A question below - in light of what appears to be your belief that Bavi may indeed be the “Real Deal” in the I/O space as exemplified by a few excerpted comments from your recent post:

There is an analogy hanging around this board that the PS/bavi platform is similar to the "Manhattan Project" that developed the atomic bomb. I think this analogy was first posited by MH. IMO there is real merit to this analogy, . . . . . .

In the immuno oncology world Dr. Wolchok is "The Man".

Were Dr.Wolchok ever to publicly acknowledge the PS pathway as primary in the immuno cascade and then link that pathway to Bavi and PPHM as the only patented mab in late stage human clinicals accessing that pathway, . . . . . . . .

The reasoning would be that "investors" could instantly see PPHM as a target for combos with existing drugs and as a target for multiple big pharma bidding.

IMO there are a number of scientists working on publications about this PS pathway. Again IMOO, it is only logical that sooner or later someone is going to link PS to Bavi and then to PPHM and--- eventually--- to the "massive patent advantage" PPHM has in this area.. Im sure you have all noticed how nobody ever makes this link----as of yet. . . . . . . .

Quietly, in a zero promoted scientific talk, Dr. Birge says his work indicates that PS is a Global Immuno Checkpoint.

This is exactly what was said by SK a couple of months back. To date it was the proverbial tree that "falls in the forest with nobody to hear it". Dr. Birge pretty much stuck to just PS without any further linkage. IMO this was as it should be under his MTA and NDA. Nevertheless, the implications of this statement are profound. I look forward to further work by Dr. Birge where he is less constrained.

. . . . . . . . The weight of the scientific argument is moving in PPHMs' favor.

Of course I would agree, if Dr. Wolchok were ever to come out publicly as you state above then INVESTORS would instantly pile into PPHM as you suggest - most likely moving the stock price seriously north immediately. But then “investors” are not really the concern here. Rather, it is BP that must be convinced - or at least one anyway - such that they can internally justify paying what would likely be deemed by the market to be a huge premium {I like to refer to as a "Pharmasett level" premium} to grab at least a piece of a Transformative Cornerstone Molecule - as well as it’s progeny of course.

So, to my question: With all the data now available, with all the publications underway to which you appear to be aware, and with the number of world class “collaborations” growing quickly, just how long - and only in your opinion of course - do you think it will take before there is enough data for any BP to develop an internal “GO” signal which would then allow them to become comfortable paying the hefty premium PPHM would rightly demand before giving anyone a piece of the Bavi et al pie?

Thanks again for your contributions.

James