Replies to post #1728 on Northern Tier Energy LP (NTI)

[jugs]

I'm not at all surprised due to legalities involved. The WNR deck is stacked against the retail side and they've got to move with extreme caution. This is probably going to be a painfully slow process but I expect WNR to prevail. And I don't think we'll see much by the way of beefed up counter offers.

My only real concern is that the exits will be filled to the max when the deal favoring WNR is done and their offer will be the lone support basis for NTI units. However, I've let go of a lot of NTI and put it into ALDW which is sporting a fat amount of capital app plus a virtually equal distribution.

There are ways to play this without feeling like a sacrificial lamb. And while I won't ram it down anyone's throat I will admit to feeling a bit sheepish about it.

Is this shear (sp. intended) nonsense?

Len (o' Lynn)

[pete807]

A friend spent his career handling high income peoples money and put a brother in law into NTI at 1000 units, so I quizzed him about the deal as he is following it closely. He talks about EBIDA and compares to other market deals. He says the units are worth at least $32, maybe a bit more. That doesn't mean we will get it though, but he thinks there may be pressure to raise the offer slightly in the coming months (look for the deal to finish next year). The question is... what will the market think of WNR when it's all over as they must dilute AND borrow over a billion to buy the 62% of common units.
The new company will be more diverse and have a lot of assets in retail and infrastructure in the best areas of energy in the USA. They may show some decent quarterly reports.
I think we are right to assume the current retail holders won't be in love with WNR so the exits could get crowded, and it's likely to dip but I do not expect their stock to crash after the deal and no other player has surfaced to challenge WNR as it would take well over 2 billion for an outsider. I too won't be holding WNR long term.
Timing of the deal is the big question. If they run at full capacity till years end it could mean another $1 in February. Whenever I sell out it will impact another company which is showing significant downside in the energy part of my account to offset the loss. I feel like that one, and the analysts agree, is beat down and worth $11 or $12 more. For me it's not the right time to bail. Dec or Jan regardless as I feel the risk reward falls off the table with WNR. Waiting for more information. GLTA!