Replies to post #63873 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Ajax133]

AMIRINV: I believe you have it right. Kudos !
There are many ways to look at data, it's a
Risk/Adjusted Probability Model. Plain and
simple. Your % is a highly Variable. You create
a Market both ways.

[FishyFingers]

Your conclusion is correct. EPA has the effect of stabilizing and reducing plaque.

http://atvb.ahajournals.org/content/31/9/1943.full.pdf

Its worth remembering that at the end of the day, proving that your drug reduces major coronary events by >25% at a 60% event rate/interim look is no easy thing to do.

Management remain cautiously optimistic and they are 100% correct to do so. Unlike certain members on this board, they are not getting carried away in public. They are running a company, not letting off steam/stirring up fear and greed emotions on message boards.

I know the game you are playing and I am watching you carefully.

[invest2992]

I only eyeballed the graph as you did but was struck by the same conclusion. I think you are right and hope they discuss it in the presentation.

[Biobillionair]

Plaque volume causes less blood to flow through the artery, it's of function of the vessel radius to the 4th power (and the length of the reduced diameter). So small changes in the diameter of the vessel can have large implications to the flow.

Lower flow to muscle walls of the heart causes demand myocardial ischemia, chest pain with exertion.

A drug that can reduce plaque volume is an amazing medical finding, especially considering the side effect profile. It can be used to treat:

1) Peripheral vascular disease and claudication (pain in leg muscles due to decreased blood flow)
2) Cerebrovascular disease caused by atherosclerosis of blood vessels in the brain
3) CAD, atherosclerosis in the heart leading to ischemia. Ischemia in the heart can cause chest pain and fatal cardiac arrhythmia's such as Ventricular Tachycardia or Ventricular Fibrillation

These disease processes are treated by current VERY EXPENSIVE surgical interventions such as:
1) Arterial bypasses and stents in femoral arteries
2) Carotid Endarterectomies & interventional Neurovascular procedures (Huge growing field)
3) Open Heart surgery, CABG's & Interventional stents place in heart arteries

None of this takes in the physiologic effects of reducing inflammation.

EPA does more than reduce plaque growth it reverses it and CHERRY IMO is a HUGE event.

BB

[marzan]

Beautiful approach! This is what I guess JL suggested to do. Can you share the chart please.