No idea about $s that might be recouped. My analogy to empty Chinese cities was becuz there are a bunch of new or nearly new deep water drill ships out there looking for business so deep discounts can undoubtedly be had by anyone that wants to remotely visit the bottom of an ocean.
As for COP's supposed exit from deep water. The exit isn't complete. They specified exploration. I am sure they will continue to partner in deep water projects. In addition, there's no barrier to them going back into deep water exploration when prices improve and they might have a friendlier political environment as a bonus.
Looking at things on a price-to-book basis, energy stocks are selling for just 55% of the broader S&P 500, according to a note this week from BAML - the lowest level since 1986. On average, energy has been 85% as expensive as the S&P.
Book values can change, but do tend to be more stable than earnings - while ExxonMobil's EPS is expected to fall 45% this year, its book value is seen slipping just 1%.
Jack Hough takes a look at three names trading at particularly large discounts:
Chevron (CVX +1.5%) sells for 1.1x book vs. a 10-year average of 1.74x. Though cash flow has turned negative, JPMorgan's Phil Gresh says the risk of a dividend cut is "near zero."
Apache (APA +1.2%) sells for 1.07x book vs. a 10-year average of 1.5x. The company has a recent market cap just under $18B, with $6.5B in available liquidity, including $3B in cash - putting it in position to buy assets on the cheap.
Devon Energy (DVN +2%) sells for 0.88x book vs. its 10-year average of 1.47x. The profits are expected to fall by more than half this year, the company is growing production and cutting well costs in key properties.
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