Replies to post #196346 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Your thesis would undoubtedly find support on certain message boards; however, I don’t believe Big Pharma engage in Machiavellian schemes to drive down the share prices of companies they would like to acquire.

The FDA issues news releases at all times of day with no regard whatsoever for the stock market, so the timing of yesterday’s V-Pak release was not unusual in any way.

[Bickema]

At one point yesterday ABBV had lost 11 Billion in market cap, hardly seems like a sound plan with any motivation other than self destruction.

- Who were the beneficiaries of the release?
-- In reality, GILD HCV marketing was not greatly effected so there were no much benefits for GILD.
-- Other HCV players are not on a market yet and the entire affair will be forgotten in a few weeks
-- If ABBV wants to buy ENTA then it makes sense
-- Before yesterday, ENTA short position was very large. So the panic did make sense to cover their short positions

As I indicated earlier, I blame the entire situation on ABBV management.

[ghmm]

After I saw the news I wondered if someone with more DD could have suspected. Not that I would have thought to look especially since I sold my ENTA position some time ago (far from the peak I'm not that smart :-)). But a poster who used to post infrequently here (thebusyant) had started a website to track the public FDA AE's database (in a more readable/searchable form). I didn't pay but in the free (limited results) there are clearly liver tox AE's and one death would be interesting if in a full search it would be more evident.

Don't know if this link will work
http://fdable.com/basic_query/aers/ed5df2492c6737819fdf6fb5994a2d2a
if not can just go to the site and search for "Viekira"