The yesterday FDA HCV announcement and it timing were very fishy:
- It was released at 3 PM, although, there was no any rush to wait another hour before the market closing to give the market adequate time to evaluate the info
- It was not clear who released the info in a first place but it came extremely biased in a form like "How FDA Warning Could Spell Disaster for AbbVie" deliberately creating a panic situation. It was not clear whether V-Pak will be banned altogether or new clinical trials will be needed. As it was revealed later, the label changes were already negotiated and were quite trivial
- ABBV press-release explaining the situation was delayed and released only at 6:15 PM
- Who were the beneficiaries of the release?
-- In reality, GILD HCV marketing was not greatly effected so there were no much benefits for GILD.
-- Other HCV players are not on a market yet and the entire affair will be forgotten in a few weeks
-- If ABBV wants to buy ENTA then it makes sense
-- Before yesterday, ENTA short position was very large. So the panic did make sense to cover their short positions
As I indicated earlier, I blame the entire situation on ABBV management.
