Replies to post #11052 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[jbog]

(PCL)—US homebuilders most optimistic in 10 years:

You've posted this type of projections many times over the recent years. Over the last 5 years companies like Horton and Lennar are up 200 to 300 percent while PCL is down about 10%. Even Weyerhouser is up 80%.

Ever think you're in the right church but the wrong pew?

[DewDiligence]

PCL reports 3Q15 results—forecasts 1.25 US housing starts in 2016:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/plum-creek-reports-results-third-201500761.html

Residential construction markets continue to slowly recover and the company expects housing activity will reach 1.1 million starts during 2015. During the first nine months of the year, the North American lumber supply exceeded demand and led to declining lumber prices. Late in the third quarter, sawmills throughout North America began adjusting their production schedules and lumber markets are firming in response.

The company expects housing starts to increase approximately 14 percent in 2016 to about 1.25 million starts, with continued growth beyond 2016 to demographically supportable levels of about 1.5 million starts.

PCL tends to be conservative in its forecasts of US housing starts*, so its 1.25M number for 2016 is quite encouraging.

Please see #msg-101175278 for additional context for the trend in US housing starts.

*PCL’s original 2015 forecast given in late 2014 was 1.1M starts vs the Wall Street consensus 2015 forecast of 1.2M at that time.