Morning Balance,
You certainly piece together the potential scenario well and I can tell you have spent some serious time thinking about how it could all come to fruition based on available information, scenarios that are possible / likely and board chatter.
The only point about a buy-in that I would raise concerns the timing of any buy-in and also the point relating to valuation that has been hammered out on this board recently - i.e. a) how to put precise valuation on what you have when you don't know exactly, or b) just get the deal done for a value that seems reasonable based on what may be there.
If a) needs to be found out before a deal can be done, then we have a wait on our hands.
If b) is what will happen, then we have company executives on our side and the buy-in partner's side who are willing to take a gamble - but hey: they all gambled on the JDZ in the first place based on what is expected to be down there, so there is at least some information to work with.
There is nothing wrong in theory with a gample, as long as ERHE shareholders get an equal half or better half of the deal. The other camp's shareholders would be thinking the same thing, so executives from both camps would risk seriously annoying their shareholders that have high hopes for the JDZ.
Maybe it would be possible to put a clause into a buy-in deal that guarantees that if the find is smaller / larger than the level at which the deal is struck, then cash would change hands to compensate the party that got the short end of the deal once the oil reserves have been accurately estimated. Even this though, would not be very satisfactory for shareholders, because each party's share holders would go a couple of years with no real idea of their stock's true valuation.
I still view a buy-in difficult to put in place, but I suppose I just don't know how it would work exactly.
One thing I do agree with is that there seems to be something bubbling at the moment and we also seem to be making good progress at putting the raid behind us.
Let's hope so, as it would be good to see us raise anchor next week !
Have a good weekend, R