Replies to post #10811 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Addendum: CLB has been predicting a V-shaped recovery in the global oil market, predicating this forecast on what happened during the 2008-2009 recession. This never rang true, IMO, insofar as each market downturn is different.

I’m surprised that CLB is still talking about a V-shaped recovery in today’s SEC filing (#msg-117335355).

[DewDiligence]

CLB reports 3Q15 results—and (dire) 4Q15 guidance:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/core-lab-reports-third-quarter-211300905.html

In spite of the Company's view of a recovery in 2016, for the fourth quarter of 2015, Core projects further industry activity declines in North America tight-oil plays. Currently U.S. rig counts are down 8% from average third quarter 2015 levels. Oil company 2015 operating budgets are at very low levels and nearing exhaustion, which will force the North American rig count to further contract later in the fourth quarter. Moreover, extended operating suspensions are likely during the North American holiday season. International rig counts are projected to be flat to down in the fourth quarter.

Core projects fourth quarter 2015 revenue to fall sequentially approximately 9% to $180,000,000, with operating income falling to approximately $40,000,000, producing sequential quarterly decremental margins in the 50% range [ouch]. Fourth quarter 2015 EPS is projected in the $0.63 to $0.67 range, with FCF [free cash flow] once again exceeding net income for the fifth consecutive quarter.

I’ll have more to say after the CC tomorrow morning (8:30am ET).