Replies to post #153238 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[Scripo]

Well put

[Oddlot]

The trend IS down, but a retracement to the bottom of the consolidation area from which prices broke down should be considered routine and normal. Such retracements often require some consolidation before starting. The area 205-207 served as support on seven occasions in 20 weeks, with only one break towards 204. I also would expect a retracement to "204ish" up to 207. Beyond that, we would be in limbo, waiting for proof of continued uptrend instead of pending failure.

[imiloa]

re: pennant vs flag, fwiw, imo, they are different shapes.

a flag is a relatively flat (rectangular) channel
often moving in the opposite direction of the pole's movement.

ie:
a bull flag is usually a sagging channel after a steep rise.
and a bear flag is usually a rising channel after a steep drop.

a pennant is a triangular pattern
in which the oscillation amplitude is reducing with time
tapering to a point.

the key diff, imo, is that flags suggest a break in the direction of the pole's movement.

while a pennant suggests indecision,
meaning it could break either way.

that said,
to my eye, current shape looks pennant starting from aug 21.
but more flagish starting from sep 1st.

today should revise the patten a bit.
• if we gap higher today, then run up into close, the pattern is broken bullish.
• if we gap higher today, then drop into close, the pattern will look more flagish.
• if we open lower and drop a bit, but stay above 193 (seems unlikely at this point due to futures), the pattern will look more pennant.

time will tell...