i don't anticipate think any one single event will be the epicenter. just like it is not just one indicator on a chart that gives a buy or sell signal.
it will be a compilation of agendas that will instigate the domino's to start falling,.. then the greater fool affect comes in. for all i know it (a market fall/correction) might have already started.
but the writing is on the wall,...Greece, Puerto Rico, Brazil,etc, etc,...China dumping Treasuries, lowering the yuan, this is the beginning of a currency war and we know who will will and who is holding the cards,...the house of cards that is doomed to fall.
i for one only am concerned to be on the right/profitable side of the trade. i have been building put positions in the DOW, and SPY.
i'm re-displaying these posts to validate that i am an official bear at this point in the market,..i will play a trade to the call side if warranted,...but at this point the bear has risen,..at least to my eyes.
this is what i posted this week,...
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this is what i see,...well a simplistic view that is,...
the market is multifaceted and controlled by institutions and they have been sellers!!!
the market is oversold here and there will be a reflex rally probably lasting 2 weeks or so and then a resumption of the downside (my guess) or it could just collapse here from the weight of fear and margin calls (remember hedge funds use margin heavily).
i'm playing with this in perspective,...a chess game,...
in my opinion (since you asked for input) i think this is a trap.
this sell off beginning last week with China's devaluing their currency was not anticipated,..by anyone,..even the supposed 'smart money' (institutions and hedge funds) so no one was prepared to exit for safety. now there is a scramble. so how to exit with the minimal amount of loss ?,....
the big boys run it up,..make it appear like its a retail buying opportunity so they can get dump shares.
all that promoted this sell off is still in effect. what has occurred to remedy any of China, Greece, the Fed, etc circumstances ? nothing as i see it.
i'm not suggesting that if a trader is quick they can capture gains on put and call positions,...i'm just not trusting the operators of this markets.
in very cautious mode.
i still have some of my SPYp, DOWp in place. i did sell to capture the insane profits,...but i'll add to those positions as i see it warranted.
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