Replies to post #12650 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[kld2]

Good post, Drano. Keeping it real.

[TrueTrades]

I know. You are one passionate SOB! I find this board relatively free of low-level cheering & bashing.

Yes, 12 is a small sample. But the full 32-patient results, based on population pharmacokinetics, is not.

And the observations of caregivers and clinicians are part of Population pharmacokinetics too.

Again, we begin a useless argument. I always agree with your fundamentals. Beer? :-)
§AVXL

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

I agree with Drano 100%. If the ratio of the sample was 2 out of 12...this would be a different story. We are talking about almost all of the sample size...also if all 32 people were done and only 12 were reported because the stat looked great, that would also be a different story. Sample are projections what may happen in the larger pool. We shall see what happens soon.

[bernardc]

I did a Gantt chart starting mid-January in order to see where the trial was at when they published the PR on 7/22.
Anavex said that 2/3 of the patients were enrolled which gives about 1 new patient/week.
So by 7/22:
- 17 patients had gone thru the 36 days (part A)
- the 1st 5 patients had gone thru the 1st 3 months of the part B with patient #1 being at 16 weeks, # 2 at 15 weeks,...# 5 at 12 weeks.
That is why Anavex was able to say that patients wanted to increase the part B from 26 to 52 weeks.

My point is that Anavex's team knows very well that publishing preliminary results that are better than the end ones would tank the stock.

By the time of the preliminary results on 7/22, they had more data than they released and if these data were not as good or better, they would have been more nuanced and less positive in their comments.
Also Dr Mac Farlane, although said he was cautiously optimistic, wouldn't have made the comment that it's the most exciting trial he's worked on.

So yes 12 is a small number but at the same time they also had some of part B data that we don't know yet about (except that patients want to extend).

There are 2 AD conferences coming up: on 9/9 and 10/5.
- By 9/9, the 1st 12 patients will have gone thru the 1st 3 months of part B (the 12th one finishing the 3 months at the 2nd week of September).
- By 10/5, the 1st 3 patients will have completed the 26 weeks.

I am mentioning the 1st 3 months of part B because on the 7/22 poster it says they would release data at 3 months.
If Anavex decides to release data at the 9/9 conference, we should get an announcement this week or next.