optlearner, imo, a fed rate rise will cause market to sag, maybe tank,
due to the large number of corps that have leveraged carry trade debt
while rates have been very low (effectively free).
question is, how quickly the companies can unwind that debt
if rates rise, and that will depend on profit and other factors.
with earnings lower this quarter (on average)
and only a month til sept,
my guess is not many can react in time,
even if they're already planned for it.
as parallel evidence to this logic,
note how the market has reacted to every shift in sentiment about the rate rise.
whenever sept rise seems likely, market drops.
whenever fed has good reason to kick the can, market rallies.
that pattern has been happening all year.
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