Replies to post #24253 on The New CS Board

[dindindon]

>> oil

imho, oil price is the function of (USD, Demand/Supply, global economic conditions (a nested factor of Demad) ) . Ordinary people like me has no resources to sort out such a complicated function. Recently, the deflationists are making loud noise, they may have their merit. i think oil sector is not a good new entry (for Buy-&-Hold) play at this time period. in essence: keep watching with a Hold stance.

i sold my long-held COP long time ago, I don’t own oil stocks, and will not do scalp on this sector.

Oil Will Fall to $45, Says Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie
Commodities strategist also warns that markets have access to too much capital relative to future demand.
JULY 20, 2015
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3472502/research-and-rankings/oil-will-fall-to-45-says-goldman-sachs-jeff-currie.html

The International Energy Agency recently warned that oil prices are likely to fall further. Do you share this view?

Yes. Continued growth in low-cost production, from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia, in the face of resilient U.S. production and sharply declining production costs leaves the market oversupplied despite a decent demand response so far.

Goldman Sachs sees $45 oil by October
James Stafford, Oilprice.com8:13 a.m. EDT May 22, 2015
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/05/22/oilprice-dotcom-45-dollar-oil/27741695/

Crude OIL and SP500 Intraday - Elliott Wave Analysis
By: Gregor Horvat | Mon, Aug 3, 2015
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38485/crude-oil-and-sp500-intraday-elliott-wave-analysis

Crude oil is falling sharply making a new impulsive cycle from above $49 that can represent wave five in a bigger extended wave three. At the moment we see room down for decline to around 45 area before we may look for a bottom, most likely later this week.

Elliott Wave Analysis of USO (Oil)
By: Nouf | Mon, Aug 3, 2015
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38483/elliott-wave-analysis-of-uso-oil

China state firms to start pumping new oil in Iran
03 August 2015
http://www.awdnews.com/economy/china-state-firms-to-start-pumping-new-oil-in-iran

Iran Wants to Double Oil Exports After Sanctions Lifted
Exports could hit 2.3 million barrels a day, deputy oil minister Moazami says
By BENOÎT FAUCON and SUMMER SAID
Updated July 5, 2015 4:54 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-projects-oil-exports-to-almost-double-after-sanctions-lifted-official-1436098424

The correlation between Oil price & USD may be a temporary phenomenon, but it is a strong correlation.