Bblack,
Assuming the FDA was full of leaks and some of those leaks go to the likes of AF & HF, which would be the most likely for the single transaction of 10,000?
A. "The buyer was either a speculator (with perhaps some tip about the Adcom), or a long owner looking to hedge his position with a married put"
B."The put seller (remember this is a bullish position) could have been a short seller looking to hedge his short ...i.e. entering into a covered short position"
C."Or it might have been the specialist hedging some other position."
I assume both A. & B. are two sides that took different sides of the trade...in a I scratch your back you scratch my back term?
And "C" leave numerous scenarios...but the transaction still was based on likely tip? The timing of the transaction was so obvious.
Greed drove someone to make a huge mistake IMO.
BB