Replies to post #11611 on VelocityShares Credit Suisse 3X Long Crude ETN (UWTIF)

[LastHand]

Really interested in what's going to happen in next few days, but no way we hit 13, unless you think WTI is headed to $150. UWTI is a decaying asset. I know the argument is 10% is 10%, doesn't matter... but pretty much everyone is targeting a UWTI price as it directly relates to the WTI price... and then there is the velocity factor. UWTI has yet, in the last several months, ever showed any capacity to move more than 3X up. It does, repeatedly, show that it can decrease more than 3X, especially when the contract flips to next month. There is history, and there are charts, but look at the data below, UWTI quotes w/WTI at the same price, different dates. Meaning, WTI at $70 is maybe UWTI @ 5.50ish. The 13 ,11, 9,... predictions for UWTI are way off. Some poor newbie is going to think they can get a 300% return in the next 30-60 days, not going to happen.

WTI     UWTI Date                                                                                                   
 58     3.43 4/23/2015    3.20 5/26/2015                                                            
 58.5   3.52 4/29/2015    3.28 5/26/2015                                                            
 59     3.61 4/29/2015    3.60 5/11/2015   3.35 5/29/2015                            
 59.5   3.69 4/30/2015    3.67 5/14/2105                                                            
 60     3.76 5/13/2015    3.79 5/14/2015   3.55 5/21/2015  3.55 5/22/2015 
 60.5   3.89 5/5/2015     3.87 5/14/2015   3.64 5/21/2015  3.59 5/29/2015 
 61     3.96 5/12/2015    3.76 5/18/2015