Replies to post #12481 on Ngen Technologies Holdings Corp. (fka NGRP)

[Det_Robert_Thorne]

That's a SWAG of potential future sales

So let's look at one Marina, which takes five lights, then assume that they really meant to buy 10, then assume that the remaining 25 marinas, despite the fact that we know nothing about their locations and layouts (places logical to put a security light with a cam,) will also take ten and not five.

Then we'll assume that this magical 260 lights won't happen over multiple quarters.

And we'll also assume that half of the 90 potential customers will want three lights, because, well, Guard Lite!!!. And that all those 135 will be purchased in the same quarter.

The thing about that potential $395K gross profit is that for the past three quarters, Liberated's expenses have been about $260K/quarter.

But the SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess) won't all happen, and it won't take place in one quarter, so that means more losses or breakeven.

And that's why the booking of $13K in 3Q/15 revenue from five Guard Lites mentioned in yesterday's PR could be considered a letdown. Ten lights bought early in the quarter, plus these ten only mean $15K in gross profit against a likely $260K in expenses.

Maybe another 200 lights will be bought and paid for in advance in the next four weeks, but I strongly doubt it.