Hi Senti, thanks for the correction. I do appreciate corrections, comments, and even criticism if it is meaningful. You are absolutely correct about the 124 vs 278numbers enrolled vs recruited. I liked your other analysis though it gets a little further into comparing apples to oranges when we start talking about kite or juno. I did make sure to state that these crude estimates were not meant to be taken as COGS, though the payments to COGNATE should be a little closer to COGS than the figures using R&D expense. I just question the amt of money going into cognate and wonder what added services are we paying for and why considering that we don't own cognate but we may be helping them build this automated system or other asset related stuff that will go on Cognate's balance sheet but not nwbo's. I hardly call this an arm's length type of transaction and wonder if nwbo could have gotten a better deal using an unrelated party's facilities (or even building one in the us just like in europe.)
I made some adjustments to IMUC's comparison and came up w/ a new range of about $80K-100K/patient enrolled (vs recruited) using their R&D numbers and patients recruited for 2012 and 2011. I alos looked into ARGS who actually allocated R&D expense to their two main programs. Their AGS-003 w/ is in pIII I estimate is enrolling about 17patients per month and their allocated R&D expense for 2014 is $16.9mil. This comes to about $81-83K per patient- in line w/ Imuc's per patient cost. Note that the numbers for NWBO is probably even higher than my crude estimates because I thought I was rather being generous in the number of patients to be included in the denominator and again the Cognate ratio is the closest thing to getting a cogs figure and why is it so much higher than LP's earlier statement concerning how low the cogs should be for their dc vaccine technology? The very high numbers for the R&D to patient ratio for NWBO can be explained away by stating that the build-up in manufacturing facilities in EU and other expenses associated with that which are being allocated to R&D expense, but that is why I ask whether NWBO is putting the cart before the horse. Isn't there a cheaper alternative in the EU that can manufacture their dc-vax-L like the way IMUC is planning on pursuing? Do we need all this capacity at this point in time? Sort of like building the gravina island bridge in Alaska.
Some other poster recently posted saying that LP is not part of a ponzi scheme and she doesn't seem the part and mentioned Enron. I thought it was strange that poster even mentions ponzi and enron. Who would think that Madoff is the type to have run a ponzi scheme allegedly- a nice elderly gentleman type like him. And Enron was known for related party transactions that hid assets and liabilities causing fraudulent financial statements that led to people going to jail and a major accting firm to collapse hurting many innocent people with it (naive investors and workers). LP who came from Enron is doing the same thing in terms of using related party transactions but hopefully there won't be anything illegal that would lead to a falsified financial statement. It seems to have been disclosed properly in the financial statements though the amts even after you adjusted IMUC's comparator numbers is still rather high just going to cognate alone. One would think that LP who came from Enron would not put herself in a similar situation or at least make the transaction appear more like at arms length. but that is JMHO.
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