The markets are interesting. I like to play biotch IPOs because of my background in clinical medicine and research. I can tell you that there is a gambling component to these things. Technology that shows loads of promise often doesnt do as well initially as the tech company that is pursuing a bad technology but markets it through media outlets well.
A good example is Epizyme (EPZM). it is technology based on DNA methylation/acetylation. It is meant to silence certain genes or turn them on. This technology has been studied quite a bit. And it has continuously proved to be not tremendously effective with our current level of understanding. Same goes for some of these technologies where we try to put "good" DNA into people by means of adenovirus. It has been proved time and time again that it does not work all that great. Epizyme is trying to make tech that is further from proven effectiveness than CR845, has a smaller niche market than CR845, and doesn't have nearly the basic science foundation of CR845. Epizyme has a market cap that is 3x cara right now. And that is after a HUGE (-60%) drop over the last year.
If there is one rule of the market, it is that good things do well in the long run. And CARA has one of those good things that will probably do better than we can imagine. It's possible that it'll get approval for weird things when patent age matures. It may get a restless leg syndrome approval or complex regional pain syndrome or fibromyalgia. It really has tremendous potential. And best of all, it is very close to FDA approval.
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