roni: My trading strategy
I sold a bunch of covered calls back when AAPL was between $17 and $18. July 17.5s all. I made between $1.05 and $1.50 on them then, making my exit price between $18.55 and $19.00, though commissions reduce the high end of that range by maybe a dime. So I'm not as free to sell now or next week as I might be. I bought all these shares at an average price of $13.83 or so.
The truth is that I'll be darned happy with the roughly 35% gain these shares have given me over the past few months, so I wouldn't be crushed if I end up getting called out in July. My original plan was to buy back the calls when AAPL declined from the mid $17s between April and July, so that I would be positioned to take advantage of the rise I foresaw coming right now. But the market has been stronger than I anticipated earlier this spring, and I never got the $16 price I thought I would. The closest we got was the high $16s just 1-2 weeks ago, at which time my trigger finger started itching, but I never truly got close to firing.
Somebody who'd bought then would be sitting pretty right about now.
Because I anticipate a "sell on news" decline after any announcements are made on Monday (barring substantial institutional support), I may look to buy back my calls then. I may also buy more shares then. But the broader market may now finally be getting the decline I had been expecting earlier, a couple months late, which could put more downward pressure on AAPL. If this results in AAPL getting down as far as $16 again, I will almost certainly buy back those calls. Because I think that as was the case in 1998, AAPL is now an attractive long-term hold, and I want a substantial investment in this company to share in that gain. ("Long-term" meaning over the next 2-3 years.)
No, the round of growth I expect for Apple over the next couple years will not be reflected in the share price of AAPL the way it was five years ago, when AAPL could have been an eleven-bagger for an equity trade executed with perfect timing. But that's only because we're not going to be seeing the same kind of broader market bubble over the next couple years that we saw then.
There is nothing to suggest that AAPL can't double from today's levels if Apple takes care of business, though.
Buona fortuna
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
