Replies to post #189382 on Biotech Values

[WorstLuck]

Re: OCRX Outcomes Table

I'm mostly curious how you got to 4% chance of futility. I have no feel for whether that is high, low or about right and could benefit from deeper understanding.

[Double_Bagel]

So, we get the "Upsize enrollment" outcome. Now 230 instead of 140. The bid / ask is 4.26 / 4.69 now, with the last trade at 4.36 (down 7.5%). So, if we get the full 15% downside, then we are looking at 3.8 - 3.90.