Replies to post #56830 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[Tex]

re the denominator

A third survey of 2,221 Alliance members in March saw Apple's share of desktop purchases at 8 per cent, and its laptop share at 6 per cent, the researchers claim.

Among Alliance members planning to purchase a laptop in the next 90 days, 17 per cent said they'd get a Mac.

Surveys of an organization's paid subscribers are notoriously likely to reflect biases that prevent generalization to a broader demographic. The only saving grace would be evidence that shows their views are like the views of broader groups.

Their survey may have been legit, but it only tells you about its members, so ....

On the other hand, there are other surveys (e.g., students) that suggest dual-boot improves Apple's chances in competing for purchases. So all is not lost; it's not like this is a survey of MacWorld subscribers, is it?

Take care,
--Tex.

[langostino]

market share explosion

If I had a nickel for every time one of these pronouncements was made ...

When dealing with this sort of "research" it's always good to consider the source. I believe there have been several exchanges on the board over the last couple years about sales pimp Tobin Smith and his ChangeWave sales outfit. The "bunch of hacks" characterization you posited is just about right. Except I'd make it "sleazy bunch of hacks". Their research is about as believable as Tobacco industry "research" saying cigarettes don't have a darned thing to do with cancer. They're manufactured specifically as a sales tool.

Here's a blip from the last "research" report from one of ChangeWave's sales bulletins (posted here last year by Altaire) from March 2005 ...

"Our Director of Research Michael Shulman says it well: "Investors are debating whether the iPod will pull Mac sales. Our most recent Alliance survey results end the debate -- ChangeWave's early-adopting, Windows- and Linux-using professionals are hooked on the iPod and are planning to purchase Macs for their homes at a faster rate than they plan to buy HP computers."

Yep. By last spring Macs were going to be sold in volumes catapulting right over the top of HP, LOL! (At the time, it should be noted he was also pumping Dell and bashing HP - another, ahem, "prescient" call, LOL).

Of course in this most recent piece of pimpery, the dead giveaway should be this line:
"A third survey of 2,221 Alliance members in March saw Apple's share of desktop purchases at 8 per cent, and its laptop share at 6 per cent, the researchers claim."

Well, we have Apple's sales results for the quarter including March, and we have the Gartner monthlies for March and needless to say, there's just a tiiiiiiny discrepancy there between this allegedly predictive "Alliance members" group, and the real world. Tiny as in wee, as in "just a bit", as in Bob Ueker's humorous movie description of Wild Thing's pitch over the head of the catcher to the backstop as ... "juuuuuuuuust a bit outside". LOL.

Doesn't mean we can't or won't see some modest pickup in Mac PC sales in the back half of the year building into 2007 with the MacBooks finally out the door and the desktops on their way. But using Tobin Smith's "research" as anything more than cheap entertainment isn't worth a wooden nickel.

[WinLoseOrDraw]

ChangeWave research...

Tobin Smith, well known Fox (and elsewhere) shill.