Absolutely not. Promises made by the CEO and hints we'll see some partial responses when both are likely untrue? Absolutely.
Combine that with a chart that was slipping in the low $8s and you have the makings of a natural put entry. Especially if one is looking to protect the value accrued in their shares.
It's called a hedge. People are being very black and white here. You can be long a stock and hedge on spikes (especially if you feel there is evidence they will reverse). Or you can sell and try to time a reentry (like John and RK have done), which I find more risky.
But we do have some track record here. A lot of "we will"s that never panned out. Whole group Direct data end of March is imo another one of them. But even if I'm wrong and they decide to anyway, these data may backfire if only a smaller % are SD, and especially if there are no PRs.
I think by now the public gets that injecting these tumors will create an immune response that kills tumor cells enough to show no living tumor cells or paucity (very few) of tumor cells in biopsies. But it's unclear how that will translate to an approvable therapy. And so unclear how that info will move the pps.
Injecting 2 or 3 (if enough vaccine) in the Ph II should help improve ORR, but will it be enough? Using Direct as an adjuvant with CIs could improve the ORR of Opdivo, for example, and so that's another possibility. But I think all the signs point to them being concerned at no ORR. If they don't get some PRs in the Ph II then they are at a crossroads: either combine with CIs and hope they improve on their efficacy while keeping SAEs low (no one knows what will happen in patients when these two therapies are combined), or enroll a survival trial with an active comparator (like DCVax L).
You and others can rail against these points but it won't remove the fact. And I find that to be the real decisive force here, not stating the obvious reality of the situation.
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