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rafunrafun

02/27/15 10:47 PM

#42987 RE: sts66 #42980

Are you seriously our of your mind, high teens is royalties plus milestone payments of up to $154M is bad???
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staccani

02/28/15 12:50 PM

#43040 RE: sts66 #42980

high teens royalties + milestones payments a horrible deal? You either do not know what you are talking about, or you are a desperate short. Welcome to my ignore list
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Whalatane

02/28/15 7:25 PM

#43072 RE: sts66 #42980

STS whats important IMHO is the $15m cash upfront .

In 2016 the costs of running RI will be lower , income from scripts is hopefully higher ...so this $15m will cover cash flow for one critical Qt in 2016, while we are awaiting interim data .

In other words ..reduces or eliminates risk of dilution before interim data analysis ....thats the immediate value of the deal
Kiwi
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HDGabor

03/07/15 7:46 PM

#43722 RE: sts66 #42980

KOWA is different. AMRN recognize all revenue and pay all cost. In exchange for Kowa Pharmaceuticals America, Inc.’s co-promotional services, Kowa Pharmaceuticals America, Inc. is entitled to a quarterly co-promotion fee based on a percentage of aggregate Vascepa gross margins increase from the high single digits in 2014, to mid-teen percent levels in 2015, and to the low twenty percent levels in 2018, subject to certain adjustments.

Not a bad deal, much better than Arena-Eisai:

Arena is responsible for development and associated expenses. Arena received $210 million inc. the delivery of product supply for launch.
Arena sell lorcaserin to Eisai for a purchase price starting at 31.5% of Eisai's annual net product sales, and the purchase price will increase on a tiered basis to as high as 36.5% on the portion of annual net product sales. Arena is also eligible to receive $1.16 billion in one-time purchase price adjustment payments based on annual sales levels of lorcaserin.

Arena result: $210 million - development expenses + 31.5%-36.5% of net revenue (min. $1.16 billion)

Meanwhile:
Eddingpharm will be solely responsible for development and commercialization activities in the Territory and associated expenses. Eddingpharm will be responsible for preparing and filing regulatory applications in all countries of the Territory at Eddingpharm’s cost with our assistance. Amarin receive $169 million, meanwhile does not have any cost
Eddingpharm will reimburse Amarin on a cost plus administrative fee basis for commercial product sold.
Eddingpharm will pay to Amarin tiered double-digit percentage royalties on net sales of Vascepa in the Territory escalating to the high teens.


Amarin result: $169 million + COGS (it is currently 35% of net revenue and won't be lower than 20% ever) + administrative fee + 10%-19% (?) of net revenue. The result is 30-54% (depends on the COGS and royalty) + admin fee.
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HDGabor

03/28/15 7:32 AM

#46096 RE: sts66 #42980

One more thing, why the AMRN-Eddingpharm is better deal than the Arena-Eisai (top of the higher percentage)

Arena's revenue is fix, but has a "risk" (cost of the API), meanwhile AMRN does not have (they are recharging the cost od the API to Eddingpharma)
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couldbebetter

03/28/15 9:20 AM

#46106 RE: sts66 #42980

Noone knows for certain when Vascepa revenues for china will begin. 2019 may be a wild guess at this point. Getting a lock on the market in China is a potentially huge deal! Just getting all of the milestone payments may cure AMRN's debt payment problems in those future years. Royalties at the high teens is very reasonable. Should peak sales be around $1 billion AMRN would receive around $170 million, after taxes around $144 million. Put a PE of 10 to that number and you get $1.44 billion or about $5.00 per each fully future diluted share. (I use 285 million for that.) Again, this is just a model but there is some very real potential value there. Regardless of anything else I am certain that $15 million cash upfront we received in February will go a long way to insure we are in business until Reduce-It results come out.