After the ABBV guidance I am now more comfortable with your peak annual sales figure. Most of my quibbles amount to trivial changes to the bottom line.
The one note of consequence is still the 8x multiplier, as it was previously. I will continue to use a lower number for my own estimates. There is still good upside available on a risk-adjusted basis IMO given normal care in trading. I just don't anticipate going overweight by more than a 1/2 position size.
Dew, I did a hard DCF eval of enta using some of your numbers.
I took your peak royalty payment of 127M$ which I assign to yr 2016. I assume this stream of payment declines by 15% a yr until 2024 due to competition. I assume a discount rate of 10% which I thought is middle of the road. I would have used a much higher rate of 20-25 or even higher for non approved drugs in cancer.And finally for 2015 I assume a royalty payment of 80M$. The PV of these 10yrs is 535M$ + 277$(your cash number) + 100M$(your Japan number) = 921M$/20Msh = 46$/sh. So it is a matter how low I can buy back in and I will. I would readily admit I get my assumptions from the parts of my anatomy normally protected from sunlight. And I don't go past 10 yrs as the discount factor gets bigger and the payment stream gets smaller.
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