Replies to post #323 on CVR REFINING (CVI)

[lesarrow]

I agree wholeheartedly with everything you said Michael. The zero visibility is especially concerning.

The price really fell out when the WTI-Brent spread tightened and went shortly negative. Now it sits at about $5.

Three things made me buy and/or feel good about buying while this was happening.

1. Credit Suisse's downgrade to sell had a 12-mo price target of $19. As I said in a previous message, when CVRR hit 13 that $19 target was a screaming buy.

2. Oil is going to stabilize some day (if it hasn't already). Low oil prices should be good for all refiners. Even if this quarter is a disaster, the future looks bright. Low gasoline prices will increase demand. I do not believe there will be a glut of fuel for long.

3. VLO's numbers were great and gave some credence to my theories.

I would never say I'm sure about any investment, but this one seems right.