Replies to post #31583 on Value Microcaps Junior Miners

[bbotcs]

Canadian plays: Thank you very much for your time and effort,
dr airtime, in compiling the list. I don't play many junior miners, and now I have five excellent companies to investigate. The information you provided is very helpful.

[goforthebet]

dr.airtime,

great stocks. I bought on the dip today MUX, EXK (added) and some DPMLF as a starter. I really like MUX

I bought also a bunch of CDE around 5 dollar. looking good chartwise and from fundamentals, after the announcement regarding qcquisition PZG.

I believe above 5 Dollar institutionals can buy the stock again. that may have helped today? any thoughts on that idea?

[bobby1231]

I didn't see TGZ on your list. Why not? they are going to be debt free any day now and they should have nice CF in 2015 with current gold price. I wish i had more cash to buy much more today but I'm almost all in oil.

December presentation

http://www.terangagold.com/files/doc_presentations/2014/12-05-14-December-Investor-Presentation.pdf

[goforthebet]

dr_airtime

I have a Problem

which Company is AR??

Antero Resources Cor (AR) or Argonaut Gold (AR)

both are coming up with the same Symbol??

thx for info

[goforthebet]

here you can see what I meant by my question


why is Argonaut in the Headline and Antero on the Chart? both with sybol AR

[dr_airtime]

THO.TO - another vertical tax loss selling dive...

...albeit with higher political risk, but a world class silver mine with probably all the worst news already priced in. See chart and then latest PR to understand the fuel that tanked THO.TO all the way down to $14 during tax loss selling.



http://www.tahoeresourcesinc.com/guatemalan-congress-proposes-royalty-increase/

Here is Macquarie's take on royalty increase. They are using $19 silver for 2015 and looks like about $22 long term silver.

Target decrease on higher royalty legislation
Event
? We are decreasing our target on Tahoe to $24.25 (was $26.75) on the back of
an unexpected higher royalty payment structure. Monday, before market
open, Tahoe announced that the Guatemalan Congress has passed legislation on
Friday that would increase statutory royalties in the mining law to a total of 10%
NSR (9% federal and 1% municipalities). This represents a five percent point
increase to the company’s current combined statutory and voluntary regime.
? The legislation must be signed by President Otto Perez Molina in order to become
law. We believe management’s current assumption is the legislation will be signed
by President Molina and be in effect by early 2015. Once signed, the new royalty
payment structure is designed to replace all current voluntary royalty agreements
with the local communities.
Impact
? Higher royalty = 9% decrease in NAVPS. With a 10% NSR royalty payment
structure, our NAVPS decreases by 9% to $23.30 (was $25.62), 2015E CFPS
decreased by 11% to $1.04 (was $1.17), 2015E EPS decreased by 13% to $0.88
(was $1.01) and LOM AISC increased by 14% to $10.27/ozAg (was $9.04/ozAg).
? The legislation was introduced “in the eleventh hour”. On Friday, the
Guatemalan Congress voted for a broad set of new taxes across most sectors to
raise revenue as budget legislation requires a balanced budget. The national debt
ceiling could not be moved-up until a deal to balance the Guatemala budget was
reached – subsequently another $1bn in debt was approved. We expect the
President to sign the legislation later this month before YE14 to have it ready to
kick in by the start of 2015 (we also think the taxes are likely to stay).
? Relationships with local communities could be a concern. We believe the
company will campaign the government to maintain the ~3% NSR that goes to the
local communities (as part of the 10% NSR). THO has established a good working
relationship with a number of communities that benefit from the royalty payments
and in our view it is important that the communities continue to benefit from the
Escobal silver mine.
Earnings and target price revision
? Target reduced to $24.25 (was $26.75) on higher expected royalty payments.
Price catalyst
? 12-month price target: C$24.25 based on a DCF methodology.
? Catalyst: Escobal site visit (Dec 10-12); FY14 results (1Q15)
Action and recommendation
? We reiterate our Outperform rating but decrease our target to $24.25 (was
$26.75). While the new royalty legislation hurt most economic metrics by ~10%,
Escobal is still a best in class silver mine with low AISC of $10.27.