Thursday, December 18, 2014 11:58:05 PM
**Must Read** My Picks for Next 4 days on TSX...
In descending order of preference. Took me a couple hours for this post whil doing my own refresh DD and I will be shuffling around my portfolio to overweight the six names below before Wedensday.
AR.TO - Argonaut Gold
Once the darling of the gold sector from 2009-2011, now in the doghouse as market slowly realized it was waaaay overvalued. Has come so far down I think it is an easy double if gold rallies to $1300 here. Currently trading at value-to-acquirer (Enterprise Value less working capital to acquirer) of only USD 117M. Apparenty their Baja project will never get developed but you get Magino (2012 takeover of prodigy gold in Ontario near Brigus) as a free call option on higher gold price.
MUX.TO/MUX - McEwen Mining.
See 2015 Guidance here which is a sea change from 2015 with 1000 AISC on San Jose and 750 AISC on El Gallo. They are more expensive with a USD 296M value-to-acquirer but with world class assets. Recent CL001 pick.
http://www.mcewenmining.com/Media-Events/News-Releases/News-Releases-Details/2014/McEwen-Mining-Q3-2014-Operating--Financial-Results/default.aspx
SSL.TO - Sandtorm Gold
Lil' streamer looks like it has bottomed and traded 100% higher in the summer. They are in the doghouse becuase their flagship stream Luna Gold is in trouble (plus they did a PP with them). Luna gold is in trouble and basically up for sale so I think worst is behind Sandstorm.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/luna-gold-announces-retention-of-special-committee-advisors-otcqx-lgcuf-1958570.htm
EDR.TO - Endeavour Silver
EDR is the highest Beta Silver stock. Just look at that Wave Chart in 2014. This is trade at current silver price but look at how it rocketed out of the December 24 tax loss selling lows last year. They are struggling at current silver prices and are on track to generate less than $40M in cash flow from operations this year but will go on a tear if silver goes to $20. Currently trading at value-to-acquirer of USD 189M. Risk is that it broke the trendline from December 24, 2013 tax loss selling bottom...but worst is probably priced in so in reality there could be not much downside left.
DPM.TO - Dundee Precious Metals
Currently one of the lowest AISC (Like 700-800) and lowest cash cost (like 300-400 net of base metal credits like Yamana) gold producers out there plus it is an intermediate plus THE BEST TRADER on the TSX in 2014 if you look at that wave chart. DPM did not violate it's December 24, 2013 lows so a great time to pick up and will rally big time on any increase in gold price. The most rational buy in this low gold price environment for a trader IMO. By trade I mean a 3-4 month hold looking for that next big wave...not day by day.
You may of noticed a trend which is major lows and charts looking like they have bottomed out of dropping out of Keltner channels (which is an extreme move BTW) My sixth pick is TMM.TO/TGD - Timmins gold. They have low AISC as a heap leacher, will benefit from reduced diesel prices as an open pit miner and will generate free cash flow in 2014 and 2015, adding to their cash position on balance sheet. Look at the chart. Nothing more to add here as this old trading fave from board. Was a double in 2014 if you bought near $1.00 at December 24, 2013 tax loss selling lows and it is around there again now!
In descending order of preference. Took me a couple hours for this post whil doing my own refresh DD and I will be shuffling around my portfolio to overweight the six names below before Wedensday.
AR.TO - Argonaut Gold
Once the darling of the gold sector from 2009-2011, now in the doghouse as market slowly realized it was waaaay overvalued. Has come so far down I think it is an easy double if gold rallies to $1300 here. Currently trading at value-to-acquirer (Enterprise Value less working capital to acquirer) of only USD 117M. Apparenty their Baja project will never get developed but you get Magino (2012 takeover of prodigy gold in Ontario near Brigus) as a free call option on higher gold price.
MUX.TO/MUX - McEwen Mining.
See 2015 Guidance here which is a sea change from 2015 with 1000 AISC on San Jose and 750 AISC on El Gallo. They are more expensive with a USD 296M value-to-acquirer but with world class assets. Recent CL001 pick.
http://www.mcewenmining.com/Media-Events/News-Releases/News-Releases-Details/2014/McEwen-Mining-Q3-2014-Operating--Financial-Results/default.aspx
SSL.TO - Sandtorm Gold
Lil' streamer looks like it has bottomed and traded 100% higher in the summer. They are in the doghouse becuase their flagship stream Luna Gold is in trouble (plus they did a PP with them). Luna gold is in trouble and basically up for sale so I think worst is behind Sandstorm.
http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/luna-gold-announces-retention-of-special-committee-advisors-otcqx-lgcuf-1958570.htm
EDR.TO - Endeavour Silver
EDR is the highest Beta Silver stock. Just look at that Wave Chart in 2014. This is trade at current silver price but look at how it rocketed out of the December 24 tax loss selling lows last year. They are struggling at current silver prices and are on track to generate less than $40M in cash flow from operations this year but will go on a tear if silver goes to $20. Currently trading at value-to-acquirer of USD 189M. Risk is that it broke the trendline from December 24, 2013 tax loss selling bottom...but worst is probably priced in so in reality there could be not much downside left.
DPM.TO - Dundee Precious Metals
Currently one of the lowest AISC (Like 700-800) and lowest cash cost (like 300-400 net of base metal credits like Yamana) gold producers out there plus it is an intermediate plus THE BEST TRADER on the TSX in 2014 if you look at that wave chart. DPM did not violate it's December 24, 2013 lows so a great time to pick up and will rally big time on any increase in gold price. The most rational buy in this low gold price environment for a trader IMO. By trade I mean a 3-4 month hold looking for that next big wave...not day by day.
You may of noticed a trend which is major lows and charts looking like they have bottomed out of dropping out of Keltner channels (which is an extreme move BTW) My sixth pick is TMM.TO/TGD - Timmins gold. They have low AISC as a heap leacher, will benefit from reduced diesel prices as an open pit miner and will generate free cash flow in 2014 and 2015, adding to their cash position on balance sheet. Look at the chart. Nothing more to add here as this old trading fave from board. Was a double in 2014 if you bought near $1.00 at December 24, 2013 tax loss selling lows and it is around there again now!
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