Count .. I can't afford to be wrong.
Therein lies the rub. I have been taught that when you can't afford to be wrong you are not investing, you are gambling. IMO, no one that puts that kind of pressure on their DD can possibly be "rational and open minded", at least not all of the time or even most of the time. The emotions have to take over at times and that has been demonstrated repeatedly on this board by the more than a few folks here who it appears to me are in the same position as you and Chris.
BTW, I am not holding 3,500 shares for "appearances sake". It is part of my diversification investment strategy of personally placing some money in the potential grand slam home run category. The rest of my money that is professionally managed is highly diversified and managed conservatively. It is the only stock of my investment portfolio that I picked and how it does is not an intellectual exercise to me and while I am optimistic by nature, I try hard not to be overly optimistic. You may recall that I have been an unwavering supporter of Marsala since he began coverage of IDCC and that is not a popular position on this board. He is my personal antidote for over optimism.
If you can't afford to be wrong that means that your analysis must always be right and when it comes to investing that is a VERY tall order. First of all, what you are analyzing is only a partial picture of the given event that has been made public. There is no way you can reduce to numbers how it fits into the overall strategy. Perhaps more importantly, there are a myriad of events taking place at the company at any given time that have not been made public that could easily negate anyone's pro or con conclusions about the past event that has been submitted to microscopic analysis.
The most important determinants of a company's success are intangibles .. like "vision", "leadership", "strategic thinking" , "teamwork", "corporate culture", etc. and they defy quantification. If you can't afford to be wrong I suggest you take your analytical abilities on the road and visit IDCC on a regular and periodic basis as institutions and analysts do, not to exact non-public information, but to form your own "gut feel" about management, morale, excitement level, etc. (I'd suggest you attend IDCC investor conferences as well but most of those are by invitation only.) Not all CEO's focus on putting a positive spin on things. Some concentrate on producing positive results that require minimal spin. My gut tells me WM is one of those kinds of CEO's.
If you can't afford to be wrong you better start analyzing those factors external to IDCC that could conceivably have a significant impact on the stock price like the Market, the Economy, Iraq war, Iran situation, gas crisis, etc, etc. And here is the real clincher about the dangers of putting yourself in a position where you can't afford to be wrong: unpredictable cataclysmic events that lead to panic selling. What do you think would happen to the stock price if, God forbid, WM dies in a plane crash or is hired away or fraud (ala Enron) is uncovered at IDCC or there is another 9/11? You would be trampled by the institutions before you could push the sell button.
Investing is not an art but it sure isn't a science either. Those who believe that they know how to make it one and are willing to put themselves in a position where they can't afford to be wrong will end up being wrong on a percentage basis that correlates quite well with the losing percentages of gamblers. There have been times I've felt IDCC was snowy white and others when it got fairly gray. In fact, a week before the LG license I sold about 30% and bought back the full amount (dollars, not shares) on the open after the announcement. Those addicted to gambling don't take their winnings off the table either. They are not happy unless they are gambling it all at all times. Think about it Frank. At least Chris admitted he is addicted to IDCC and it has caused him from time to time to color his otherwise professional judgment and behaviour.
All MO,
Danny
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