Is the value of the share priced in? Well, priced in at what exact moment? This morning at $48.00 at opening? or it's low so far 46.00? At the days close?
2 weeks ago it set a new high at $49.09 and the next morning it was $4.50 lower, more or less.
It is a low float stock and subject to wild swings.
I just try to watch the trend..... which is good; increasingly upwards.
I feel as though (just as we saw recently with Gilead) that the strong hands are trying to shake out the little investors before an upswing.
Gilead has a great treatment and is a great program. It's crazy to sell at a low, IMHO. And yet many people did just that.
Today's ENTA share price drop means little to me in the actual value of the shares. The share price trend and the recent upgrade tells me to stay put.
The fundamentals of this stock have remained virtually unchanged in the year I have owned it; but the share price as been all over the place.
Yes, I agree that the upcoming approval indications will be important (12 week versus 24 week and for what indications)
This was a somewhat larger deal in the recent Gilead approvals;
8 week off label but left up to the doctor/viral load
24 weeks for one sub group.
When the Abbvie- ENTA 3D program is approved we will see some price swings in share price.
What will remain unknown, is the response by the payors.
For me, Gilead has a great program; it's fantastic!!!
But it is another question; what % of the sub-groups will get approval for treatments in the 3D program? The payment approval distribution will not the same as the HCV infected aggregate.
In my experience, I went untreated for 10 years with no issues; virtually no medical expense. The sick ones though..... they are 200x more expensive than the well ones.
IMHO, the sickest are going first, meaning that the sub-group where the 3-D program is strongest compared to Gilead/Harvoni TX.
This will be the largest unknown remaining when the Abbvie Program is approved, and pricing is listed.
I have little trading experience myself, and I sold at Gilead's Sovaldi approval. (either smart or lucky)
BUT....there is a potential for a buyout with this company, so it could pull an IDIX some morning when we wake up and look at share price. One could make some money selling at the news, to lose far more money while awaiting a lower buy in point.
At any given moment.... the value is not priced in, IMHO.
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