Replies to post #25273 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[obuhz]

DNDN cut its manufactoring costs more than 50% during these years. Of course, that doesn't prevent it from filing chapter 11.

I think batch buy for equipments and chemicals, higher facility utilization, less human hour per dose, less energy comsuption per dose, less land rent per dose, less SG&A per dose (not counted as COGS though), etc. etc. etc. will all chime in down the volume production road.

And if DNDN could achieve manufactoring effience, so could NWBO.

[longusa]

gnawkz, my thinking is that there will be a learning curve effect as the manufacturing people get familiar with the process and are more efficient. As well, any equipment cost included in COGS will be amortized across a higher volume, thereby making the charge less to each generated dose. We have no guidance on what costs are part of COGS vs those treated below the line yet.

The best estimate I think remains using the DNDN financials as a basis and make informed deductions on what that means for NW.

[Chiugray]

Gnawkz, In addition to the items Long listed, I would also add NWBO likely has to reserve and pay for facilities, staff, supplies, and equipment with Fraunhofer for estimated peak capacity +20%, maybe over 1 year commitments even though in month 1 actual volumes would be very low. This is the ramping up inefficiency, dealing with fixed overhead and inaccurate forecasting.

I also think Fraunhofer is a research institute which might be efficient at low-volume but not efficient at high volume production, ie all clean rooms are small catering to multiple clients that need only clinical trial quantity volumes. So acquiring more Fraunhofer capacity for DCVAX might have a premium associated with it. This is a guess, but I do know that the first 1-2 years are always more costly, different reasons for different companies but always see that. Additionally when DCVAX-L gets formally approved (pass Phase 3, full marketing) and the UK manufacturing facility is operating, there should be price competition between Fraunhofer and Cognate then, with resulting cost reductions.