I don't really think there has been much of a correlation between oil prices and PEIX's stock price overall. Granted, when oil began its initial drop, all ethanol companies fell as well. But that was because ethanol margins were tanking at the time due to rising inventories. I don't believe the drop in ethanol prices or ethanol companies were related to oil prices, just overproduction of ethanol. Oil prices have fallen further since mid-October but PEIX and others are up significantly. As margins increased, so did the stock prices, regardless of oil.
As long as ethanol inventories continue to decrease, ethanol prices will stay high and the stock price will continue to work its way to fair value. The cheaper the gas, the more the public drives. Since ethanol is mandated, prices will be supported. And with increasing exports, all of these factors, including decreasing oil prices, ultimately help ethanol producers.
I actually think OPEC not cutting production could make PEIX and others an even better buyout target. A lot of oil companies will probably decide not to move forward with large capital expenditures in shale, etc. However, there is still money to be spent. And since it doesn't look like the EPA is going to budge on ethanol quotas, these companies might put their money to work here instead.
Tomorrow the stock price could be hit, but it will primarily be due to churning on an otherwise slow, low volume market half day. If we are hit, it should be short-lived, as margins are now as good or better than when we were in the $20s. At least in my humble opinion.
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