This is the closest thing to a suspense thriller in the oil markets.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on Thursday, and the market is awash with speculation about what the cartel may decide to at the conclusion of its highly anticipated confab.
The question can be distilled in this way: To cut, or not to cut?
Wall Street is split on whether OPEC will indeed announce a production cut. The cartel has a compelling reason to leave production as is -- preserve market share -- and an equally powerful reason to want higher oil prices -- lower oil revenues are taking a toll on country budgets.
Oil has been trading at multi-year lows for months and on Wednesday fell further ahead of the Thursday meeting. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for January delivery (CLF5) , the benchmark for U.S. oil, has been hovering around a four-year low, while Brent oil also has been trading at its lowest levels since 2010.
Read: Here's what OPEC's big Nov. 27 meeting could mean for oil futures
On Tuesday, speculation was rampant that OPEC's members and some key oil-producing countries net ahead of the Thursday meeting and were nearing a compromise on production cuts, but none has materialized, so far. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia oil minister Ali al-Naimi said that the crude market would stabilize itself.
Even those who believe an announcement about a cut is imminent and the most likely scenario don't expect it to be significant enough to bring prices back to the triple-digit levels oil producers enjoyed back in June. Al-Naimi also noted on Wednesday that the cartel needs to comply with its output ceiling, which is 30 million barrels a day. OPEC only marginally exceeds that quota now by a few hundred-thousand barrels.
Prices have declined about 30% since then, as markets were surprised by more Libyan production coming in line sooner than expected and negative macroeconomic data out of China . The shaky eurozone recovery also has cast doubts about global oil demand.
OPEC is likely to announce a "modest" production decline on Thursday, delivered alongside promises of monitoring the markets closely, said Sarah Emerson , managing director at Energy Security Analysis Inc.
That's a view echoed by analysts at Goldman Sachs in a recent note.
A large cut would be "self negating" as it would enable U.S. shale producers to keep their own production levels elevated, Goldman wrote.
Cutting production too dramatically could play into the hands of U.S. shale producers, by encouraging them to pump more barrels as OPEC bolsters prices.
The economic interests of the 12-member cartel are varied, as is their tolerance for individual economic pain.
How the lower prices have affected member countries depend on each country's budget and fiscal policies:
Countries such as Iran and Venezuela are thought to need prices near $140 a barrel to keep up with their budget problems, while smaller, population-wise, and richer countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are seen ok with prices around $70 a barrel.
Then there's the competition. OPEC has lost its share of the global oil pie as oil producers outside the cartel pump more oil -- and that includes not only the U.S. and its shale oil and gas producers but also Latin American countries and Russia .
With U.S. markets closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving holiday and closing early on Friday, the initial market reaction is likely to be volatile, said Darin Newsom , a senior commodity analyst with DTN.
"Long term, it may not be enough to take us right back to $100 (a barrel)," since there's plentiful supply and the outlook for demand is still cloudy, he said.
The ultimate goal for OPEC might be having London -traded Brent oil, a global benchmark, between $85 and $95 a barrel, said Emerson.
Will that be achieved?
It depends on not only what they say but what they do and how is gets reported, she added.
"Ask me on Monday."
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