My comment..A current post on the Qualcomm Board courtesy of ERIC...I had made a prior call that in the near future , cdma will be limited to Sprint, Verizon , Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
Posted by: Eric
In reply to: IronAir who wrote msg# 16666 Date:4/26/2006 9:26:43 AM
Post #of 16669
The CDMA v. GSM Scorecard ...
IronAir,
<< Let's see ... in countries served by both a GSM carrier and a CDMA carrier (e.g., Japan & U.S.), which carriers have gained the most? Answer: the CDMA carriers. >>
There are No GSM carriers in Japan. PDC/PHS/3GSM-WCDMA/CDMA only. The dominant technology in Japan is still PDC but 3GSM WCDMA is now 2nd, and DoCoMo's FOMA subs have now passed KDDI's au subscribers, and more WCDMA handsets are being sold there than CDMA.
China. No Contest.
Australia. No Contest and soon no more CDMA.
Hong Kong (the birthplace). No Contest and soon no more CDMA.
Russia. No Contest.
India. CDMA doing well but GSM doing better.
In Mexico, Brazil (and other Latin American countries), GSM has rocketed by CDMA.
Anatel's decision (and GSM in 850 MHz, and GSM/EDGE) was the nail in the CDMA coffin.
CDMA (as opposed to GSM or PDC) is dominant today in 3 major countries: Korea; USA; and Canada, but in recent years GSM has gained the most in USA and Canada.
I haven't completely abstracted the latest WesternHemisphere subscriber data but these are relative subscriber counts and 1 year net adds by technology through last June:
North America (US/Canada) Subscribers (CDG and Informa EMC) · Total June-05 1 Year Net Adds Sub Growth ============= =============== ==========CDMA 100,400,000 14,800,000 +17.3%GSM 69,100,000 27,200,000 +64.9% ·Latin America and Caribbean Subscribers (CDG and Informa EMC) · Total June-05 1 Year Net Adds Sub Growth ============= =============== ==========CDMA 49,200,000 14,400,000 +41.4%GSM 89,100,000 52,200,000 +141.2%
Once a GSM wasteland, through December there were 198 million GSM subscribers in the Western Hemisphere and 166 million CDMA subscribers (including non-mobile WLL subscribers).
<< And this despite the "dominance" and politiking of GSM cabal !! >>
And that despite the former ANSI-41 "dominance" in in the Western Hemisphere and the politiking of the Nazarians, CDG, CITEL. and QUALCOMM's DC lobby and QUALCOMM backed Representative 'Boom-Boom' Issa cabals combined !!
The Nazarian Nephew's and QUALCOM's Nextwave strategy to deny GSM carriers a nationwide footprint worked pretty well for awhile, at least till C-Block licenses returned by DCR/Pocket and others were reauctioned and Hutchinson Whampoa backed VoiceStream forged a single national network through M&A and AWS flipped from IS-136 TDMA to GSM.
Overall subscriber growth of GSM and CDMA technologies for the last six years looks like this ...
The Global Subscriber Base by Technology at Year End 2005¹ ·GSM 1,680.0m 77.38%3GSM (WCDMA) 46.0m 2.12%CDMA² 301.9m 13.91%TDMA 68.8m 3.17%PDC 46.2m 2.12%IDEN 23.5m 1.08%AMPS/NMT 4.6m 0.22% ======== ====== 2,171.0m 100.00% ·Historical Share Growth of CDMA and GSM Technology¹ · CDMA Market Share GSM Market Share % of all % of digital % of all % of digital -------- ------------ -------- ------------Q4 2005 End 13.9% 13.9% 77.4% 77.5%Q4 2004 End 14.0% 14.1% 74.4% 74.8%04 2003 End 13.8% 14.0% 72.3% 73.4%Q4 2002 End 13.1% 13.5% 70.7% 72.6%Q4 2001 End 12.4% 13.0% 69.6% 73.1%Q4 2000 End 11.0% 12.1% 62.2% 68.6%Q4 1999 End 10.2% 12.6% 52.6% 65.2% -------- --------- --------- --------6 Yr Share Increase: 3.7% pts 1.3% pts 24.8% pts 12.3% pts ·¹ Based on data supplied by Informa Telecoms and Media WCIS (formerly EMC) for all technologies except CDMA, and CDG for CDMA² Includes CDMA WLL, 'non-mobile' subscribers
Wireless Intelligence, the CDG endorsed JV of GSMA and Ovum who has replaced EMC as the official scorekeeper for GSMA saw things slightly differently in 2005. On March 30 they reported that in 2005 WCDMA gained ~1.7% of technology market share while GSM gained ~1.5%, and CDMA lost ~0.475% share. On February 9th Wireless Intelligence also reported ...
With higher than expected 3G numbers coming in recently from several operators, we have revised our WCDMA numbers upwards. We now estimate that the world reached 50 million WCDMA connections during December 2005 and is heading for 105 million by the end of 2006. There are currently two published forecasts for WCDMA handset shipments for 2006 (Qualcomm has predicted 84 million & Ovum has predicted 87 million). If we assume that all WCDMA net additions during 2006 get a new WCDMA phone, this will account for 55 million devices. If these forecasts are about right, that would leave about 30 million as replacements for the existing installed base of 50 million users. At first sight that seems a high replacement rate - around 60%. However, we feel it is reasonable, given that nearly half the base is in Japan, which has a famously high replacement rate [AND] there have been great strides in form factor, cost, battery life, displays and performance in WCDMA handsets over the last 12-18 months.
Wireless Intelligence is now projecting over 2.5 Billion global subscribers at year end with 3GSM UMTS (WCDMA) subscribers accounting for ~4.2% of that base.
To paraphrase my old SI buddy Caxton Rhodes ... I'm sorry to say that it looks to me like CDMA is Toast! <ggg>
Best,
- Eric -
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