ok, but 'charts' can't be used for sole purpose with this instance of nat gas. People primarily using charts to dictate their nat gas trade recently missed out on UGAZ at end of October and they also missed out on buying it on recent dip under 14. You may have noticed I played UGAZ (11 avg entry) in October correctly, then sold within 1-2 days of peak & switched into DGAZ near bottom (entry of 2.80's) for a brief period, and then rotated back into UGAZ this week 13.10 & 12.68. I did that using rationale other than simply charts/technicals, but primarily understanding the 'pricing in' short term of cold weather, supply/demand picture, etc.
**My opinion is that the near term fundamentals will trump technicals; Hence fundamentals create technicals & not the other way around. Nat gas is not like ordinary stocks. It is hugely based on speculations of demand/supply & affected by seasons, more so than standard technicals/charting rationale.
And forecasts are predominantly showing an equal or colder Winter than last year. Nat gas may gyrate around up-down in next few weeks, and we will have periods of cooling/warming taking turns as always with weather patterns, but likely we will have serious cold spells that will demand large nat gas amounts. Between now & December-January-February, it is likely we see break out above 4.5-'s again in nat gas at the least. UGAZ can easily see 20+ yet over Winter, with my view of 30-40 possible.
Even using an average Winter (& not excessive cold expectations), I see UGAZ hitting 20+
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