Replies to post #23014 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Ready4bluesky]

"As you can see, comparisons drawn between DCVax-L and Provenge are faulty, and therefore any negative sentiment derived from these comparisons is misplaced. Though I'm sure by this point very few are lumping them together anymore."

I guess we will see today won't we..

[csf_dialysis]

Look at DNDN take off in the PM today. Why? They will beat earnings easily.

[longusa]

Pyrr, agree on DNDN. A few additional notes:

DNDN's first PDUFA was in 2007, when the FDA had them do another PhIII. Had they gotten approved in 2007, then Provenge likely could have become SoC, at least for the restricted label it had: metastatic, castrate-resistant, minimally symptomatic prostate cancer.

The additional 3 years to get approved, plus another year of CMS review to decide if Medicare/Medicaid would cover, plus a 'build it and they will come' marketing strategy (i.e., no demand creation activity done at all in the year after CMS approval) sealed the fate.

[longusa]

One more on DNDN: we can approximate DCVax cost using the DNDN P&L. From the Q2 2014 DNDN income stmt:

Revenue 82.2m w/ COGS 37.9m yields 46% of revenue for the COGS (54% gross margin).

Then 46% * 93k per treatment regime of 3 doses yields 42.8k cost. For Provenge, each dose takes a complete manufacturing run, so that is 42.8k/3 = 14.3k per run.

So we can then approximate DCVax manufacturing cost at 14.3k plus a bit more to package multiple doses, and another adder to keep the doses frozen. So in volume production (where DNDN is now), we could estimate perhaps 16k for all doses for a patient. This gives me high confidence for the future that upon approval, NW will be highly profitable.

At the current time, the cost would be much higher given the low volume. Hard to estimate accurately; I would think at least triple (~50k), but could be off by a lot. However, once the German reimbursement number is set, we should see some hard revenue and COGS data. Hopefully not too long now.