Replies to post #11395 on Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X (NUGT)

[mannken]

Charts: In response to this discussion

I'm reducing my charting emphasis to:

1. Weekly or Monthly chart formation setups

Etf's are designed to be held daily, but I've read a research paper with data proving 2-3 weeks is the max you can sustain without costs and volatility decay losses in the right trend.

2. Moving Averages. With historical patterns + decay, moving averages still reflect accurate patterns in 3x leveraged etf's.

*There is a decay coefficient that could be added into the chart equation of parabolic 'up moves', from recent historical patterns.

(e.g.) in Dust, viewing the wave % up moves in 2013, subtracting the decay coefficient to get a better picture how high Dust could likely run in the right scenario, while including the compounding decay effect that reduces the likelihood of reaching previous year highs.

I'll have to play with the coefficient, but charting Dust/Nugt daily is not good use of time and energy, and even more so in high volatility of leveraged etf's.