Checkinin---Understanding Wave or Why I'm buying more shares.
First off, your critique was a rarity: Angry without being hostile! That's a difficult trick to pull off; not many achieve it; many should study your post (except for the Apple stuff! lol But to add a bit of context, Apple was experimenting with TPMs at that time).
Anyway....
Let's say some "insider" whispered in your ear in 2004 that ALL the computer OEMS were planning to embed inside ALL of their enterprise PCs a security chip called a TPM. And that furthermore this "insider" had obtained solid info the TPMs were intended by the major OEMS to become the defacto world wide Security STANDARD for digital security for ALL devices.
Furthermore it was expected that enterprise PCs with TPMs were expected to total about ONE BILLION by 2013.
This same "insider" then whispered that a little ole company called Wave was in the process of negotiating with Dell a deal that would bundle at about 50 cents to 90 cents per PC Wave's Embassy Software in EVERY DELL Enterprise PC for the next 8 years. Furthermore that Wave had created and patented some of the critical TPM tools.
Well, guess what---the above facts were known by many Wavoids and based on this information they bet heavily on Wave Systems.
Now the really super smart investor, of which there were none, might have asked the following simple question: What if the billion TPMs end up NOT being ACTIVATED? What if the TPMs sit dormant, unused, with no incentive for developers to create applications for the TPMs. What happens then? What does that do your business model? No one asked that question because no one believed that one billion TPMs would remain untouched.
The critics of Wave all loudly proclaim that they were right about Wave as an investment. They were right so far, but for the WRONG REASONS. It is always the same blather about Steven Sprague/Wave Systems didn't have quality software or were terrible in selling their products or were engaged in malfeasance, and so on and so forth. This is balderdash nonsense. It conveniently neglects the massive fact that a very weird and totally unpredictable happened. NO ONE WAS TURNING ON THEIR TPMS! Every enterprise PC for the past 8 years had a TPM, but none were turned on!
Guess what? You need a turned on TPM to use Wave products.
The risk factor for Wave as an investment is that TPMs will remain deactivated. I suppose the risk factor might even include TPMs that are activated----Windows 8 and 8.1 enterprise PC are TPM activated by default. But are these activated TPMs being used for anything? I don't know.
What Bill Solms has done, and it might prove brilliant, is to underscore the Virtual Smart Card application by pushing Trusted Computing/TPM into the invisible background. The TPM is now some obscure chip which serves as an invisible anchor for the star attraction, namely, the Virtual Smart Card, which will do a lot of neat stuff. And oh by the way you need to activate a security chip to make it happen.
At some point, there will be a critical mass of TPMs activations. If this critical mass takes many years to happen, then Wave may not survive. If it happens in the next 12 months or so, Wave becomes a multi-billion dollar market cap EASILY.
Tough choice.
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