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buffalop51

10/28/14 5:06 PM

#17318 RE: Pat #17316

"It appears to me that TSA will not be a buyer of ANY etd units until more companies are in the mix with an approved product."

Everyone seems to be 180 degrees out of phase with their long time opinion which is why previously pessimistic investors are now bullish. This is so easy to figure out it's almost painful.

Retail never gets it right when it counts IMO, only a few skilled do.
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zeynoc

10/28/14 5:26 PM

#17319 RE: Pat #17316

I think you are completely wrong. TSA will buy when they want to press the button. They made us go through this testing and used their own resources not for nothing. All the CRADAa, DHS award show how many miles we are off from competitition. Useful lives of the existing equipment is coming to amend and you can even see this from their own presentations. Is it gonna be this week, in November who knows but it will be here.
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vintagesake

10/28/14 5:37 PM

#17320 RE: Pat #17316

So what you're saying is,this could drag out til the end of June before an awarded IDIQ? And if no company by then is qualified...does it drag out even further? First, I'm assumming you think our competitors will get their devices on the QPL, otherwise in your scenerio they might not end up buying until God knows when... waiting...waiting some more...just so they can award multiple companies. Let's hope not,lol. I think under your scenerio, what's more likely to happen is, Implant is awarded an IDIQ sooner, which later will go up $$ wise if no companies devices are qualified by June.
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Nowak488

10/28/14 5:40 PM

#17321 RE: Pat #17316

It doesn't make a lot of sense to say they won't buy until more companies are certified.

You can argue that they won't give all of the pie to Implant and will wait to buy some of the units from other companies (makes sense from a risk standpoint), but why would they wait for more companies?

Either they have a need or they don't. If they have a need, they will buy from whatever companies are qualified and are the most competitive.
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Buzzlityr

10/28/14 10:11 PM

#17334 RE: Pat #17316

Well Pat, your post is based on competitive price bidding. ( we need two sources) What would you do, being the decision maker at tsa, and you ask for quotes, you receive one for the latest etd to gain qpl status, it clearly is at a lower price per unit than the French company and the English company, it works faster, costs less to operate and it finds the dangerous material to a higher degree of resolution than any competitor has AND you have a growing threat in passenger checkpoint and cargo.

Further to your point, you assume, incorrectly, that tsa knows the new Smiths unit will work as well, be as competitively priced AND pass certification, within 1 to 2 years...plus add in a few phone calls from various congressmen about the growing threat from ISIS...all the while you (tsa) are sitting on millions and millions of dollars already allocated for new and improved etd units...

Happy to say, your thesis does not have a chance in hell of being true or coming to pass. If you model tsa's decisions, back in 07-09ish, they removed all the old Smith's and Morpho machines and replaced them with, at that time, higher resolution models from Smith's and Morpho. Tsa does not dither when it is fully funded. To do so would be dangerous and in my opinion, highly irresponsible in the face of a growing threat.

One last point; tsa could have purchased etd units any time they wanted in 2014. But they have waited for the b-220 to gain qpl listing. Hint. HINT! HINTTTT!

Best of Luck to All IMSC LONGS!
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Buzzlityr

10/28/14 10:27 PM

#17336 RE: Pat #17316

Last thought, because some investors seemed to have swallowed your statement:

Current qpl for passenger:
- IMSC
- Old Smiths unit
-Old Morpho unit

Fact: tsa does NOT want old smiths nor old morpho units.

Smiths has "shown" a new etd unit. I do not think they have submitted a quality data package as of yet. This has to occur before the tsa even considers the unit for the certification process. Remember THAT process, the one that IMSC just went through, the one that has created all the investor complaints because of tsa delays ( gov. shut down, this took longer, that took longer, tsa voided tsa's own published schedule of events with about 5 amended announcements in just this year). If Smiths makes it through certification to the qpl by March 2016, I will be amazed. I won't be. They won't do it that fast.

Now one should swallow any bit of your thesis because it holds zero water.

Best of Luck to ALL IMSC LONGS!