I'm glad your able to add another line of perspective with so many factors out there and you are correct, I'm standing in one corner of the room analyzing stones, but there are other corners in the room that need to be analyzed.
On the earnings front, several big chip US miners are do to report on the 30th, Nugt has a bigger weight in Canadian miners when you drill down through all the ETF index data, but I have not checked into reporting dates on others.
I did checked a handful of big cap miners for analyst estimates, take NEM for example, growth estimate is -65% this Q and -82% next Q. Of course each company has its own fundamental balance sheet and some companies have other businesses besides gold. The big question, will these companies deliver a better growth outlook that the beaten down analyst opinions when they report this coming week.
On the supply/demand front, overall demand in Q2 was down, with the exception of CB's hoarding Gold. Central bank hoarding is another story that some read into as a key sign of an impending collapse of the fiat monetary system. In Q2, as comex paper gold traded down in the range from 1344-1262, demand also trended down. With even lower gold prices in Q3, did the demand change up, I don't believe the data is out yet.
To your point michael03332002 and echoing some of your commentary, lower gold prices typically creates more physical demand and gold price to production costs imbalance could change the paradigm in supply/demand balance. **We can also include that lower interest rates (cheaper capital, borrowing costs), technology advances in mining and cheaper oil to run equipment lowers the production costs of gold and thus could make the miners more profitable than expected.
If we look at this snippet from W.G.C., it suggest Gold itself could be subject to more selling pressure into Q1 and maybe Q2 as forward looking money flow into gold would come in 1/2 way into a supply plateau timeline IMO. But miners could buck this trend as their balance sheets might prove otherwise. That is why I think this weeks earnings forecasts are crucial into the shorter term trades (30 days+) of Nugt / Dust.
"Total supply increased by 10% to 1,078t. We expect supply to peak in 2014 and plateau over the next 4-6 quarters."
In the same data sheet from World Gold Council:
"April – June 2014, shows that global gold demand continues to demonstrate a return to long-term trends after an exceptional year in 2013"
Other:
Gold demand and supply statistics for Q2 2014 • Gold demand for Q2 2014 was 964t, down 16% year on year from 1,148t • Central bank purchases rose 28% year on year, to 118t from 92t • Total bar and coin demand fell by 56% year on year, to 275t from 628t • ETF outflows were 40t, a tenth of the outflows seen in the same period last year • Total jewellery demand fell by 30% year on year, to 510t from 727t • Technology demand came in at 101t, down 3% versus the same period last year • Total supply increased by 10% to 1,078t. We expect supply to peak in 2014 and plateau over the next 4-6 quarters.
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