Replies to post #75210 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[Whoops]

BK, I enjoy your shameless legitimate pumping by request even. Thanks

[Talc Moan]

Love ya BK!

[djs7]

Big Kahuna, what % royalty did you use to get your B-ABSSSI revenue of 675 million? Thanks.

[monkeyplay1]

Called out BigKahuna's big miscalculation. As a professor in engineering especially sensitive to numbers, I have to correct you even if it might give you a few more nose bleeding, crazily happy for my CTIX holding and not so happy for my concern for your health, though:-)

For ABSSSI, the calculation should go like this;

18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $6.75 billion/year with year over year increases.

The rest calculations including "5 times" stock market valuation are correct. So the final valuation number for Brilacidin should be, 6.75+0.35+1.3=$8.4 billions.

<<
18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $675 million/year with year over year increases.

B-OM has no effective treatment for 400K cases per year so 25% market penetration = 100K cases @ $3,500 per treatment = $350 million and increasing year over year.

B-Diabetic foot has 3.5 million cases a year so 15% market penetration is 520K per year @ 2500 per treatment = 1.3 billion with year over year increases.

Brilacidin for 3 indications all entering Phase 2/3 or 3 trials in the next 6 months has an initial market potential of $2.325 billion in annual sales. So, expected cap would be 5 times that. Oh, did I mention these are minimums?

Thanks, I just packed my nose with cotton to stop another nose bleed. And, those numbers weren't even crazy high yet.
>>

[FarmaZutical]

Have you ever calculated the potential value of B in animals ? Is that something we could expect the company to focus on later ? Animals need safe and efficient antibiotics just as much as humans.

[scgmck1]

The numbers are mind boggling. Could this company really be worth that much money? I think YES. The ramifications of B alone as the industry standard is enough to do it. BK, thanks for all you do for this board and its' members. I lurked for long time before I ever posted and your logic made me buy my first share. Glad I did. Thanks for your DD. I followed it up, but you did the heavy lifting.

[tduggan]

I'll have what he's having.

18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $675 million/year with year over year increases.

B-OM has no effective treatment for 400K cases per year so 25% market penetration = 100K cases @ $3,500 per treatment = $350 million and increasing year over year.

B-Diabetic foot has 3.5 million cases a year so 15% market penetration is 520K per year @ 2500 per treatment = 1.3 billion with year over year increases.

Brilacidin for 3 indications all entering Phase 2/3 or 3 trials in the next 6 months has an initial market potential of $2.325 billion in annual sales. So, expected cap would be 5 times that. Oh, did I mention these are minimums?

Thanks, I just packed my nose with cotton to stop another nose bleed. And, those numbers weren't even crazy high yet.

[loanranger]

"$2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments)"

Is that drug cost only and at manufacturers price?
What drug, dosage, length of course assumptions?
Source please.

TIA.


ps. Only because it has been copied and pasted a bunch of times and it's driving me nuts (and I know you know tihs, fo course).....it's MRSA, not MSRA. Unless there's really a MSRA that I should know about?
(If it's short for Miserable I think I may have it.)

[Yooper61]

BK, could you provide your source for the 18M figure? Perhaps your number reflects all infections and not the subset of ABSSSI. From the Durata PR for Dalvance:

“For the six-month period of January to June 2010, a projected 9.2 million patients were treated in U.S. hospitals for infections of any type, and nearly 17 percent of the diagnostic category presentations were for skin and skin structure infections (SSSI). Of these presentations for SSSI, approximately 74 percent were disease types included in ABSSSI." So that is 3.1M for SSSI overall, of which 2.3M attributable to ABSSSI. "There were more than 4.8 million hospital admissions of adults with ABSSSI from 2005 through 2011, an average of 685K per year.”

[vip1999]

BPK FOREVER!

[DaubersUP]

CTIX has been moving towards Their HDP news of late! No B talk whatsoever....hmmmmmnm? I'm not reaching, but would you be talking up something that is already in Big Pharmas hands? Just waiting on the FDA designations to see just how lucrative the finalized deal will be. Aimo

I think 750mm 20-25% royalty is a good start...probably lowball but the fact Leo acquired for several million makes big pharm look silly.

Actually, I have no idea what I speak of...the birds are so damn loud and the sun is just blinding me. Keep updating us on new HDPs and anti fungals please. This will be more lucrative than antibiotics per Leo.

UK is perfect thus far...take us home cats