Replies to post #71658 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[Golfbum]

since it always makes sense to run fabs at full capacity and since amd was not "capacity constrained", what prevented them from fully utilizing capacity with their "cost advantage" to take more market share.

gb

[smooth2o]

you:

given AMD's cost advantages, new capacity and desire to take market share,

me:

The only cost advantage that AMD will have is to offer lower prices.

you:

AMD will inevitably start competing more vigorously in the low to middle markets.

me:

Well, that will put them where they were, the low end of the market and less than 20%. I agree.

you:

Up to now, with limited capacity, it made a lot of sense for AMD to concentrate its efforts in those areas with the highest ASPs. Especially since there was so little competition at those points. With a more competitive INTC I fully expect AMD to shift gears once again and retake the low-end markets that INTC currently dominates because AMD didn't have the capacity to contest.

me:

You need to forget about the capacity thing. AMD HAD to have the 65nm fab and that gives more capacity, true, but not the kind to "take over the world". See the post today on the Intel thread about Intel producing quad notebook CPUs. The amount of fab space needed is going to be astronomical. You are thinking 6 months out, I'm thinking 3-4 years out (VLT).

you:

Anyway, all this speculation is based on NGA being a home run, anything less and AMD remains competitive in the high-end and expands into the low-middle markets.

me:

I think NGA will be a home run, yes.

you:

I particularly like the outlook for AMD's Dual Core 64b Turions. They should cause INTC fits for at least the next 6 months or until Merom arrives.

me:

Once again, just like getting the high end of the market for AMD was picking the low hanging fruit, so is the 64b advantage for Turion and that, only 6 months as you point out, not near 3-4 years.

BTW: Sorry, meant Pd to be power dissipation.