you...
Not the ONLY thing. That, AND better performance and Pd and, of course, their lower pricing. But now that Intel will have the performance and Pd lead, you can bet some of that market share will come back. Or, do you believe that performance and Pd and pricing don't have that much of an effect? You think people buy AMD b/c of something else?
me...
First of all, I assume by Pd you mean P4, or am I not getting something?
Yes, having the performance lead is a good thing, but look at how long it took for Opteron to get established despite being heads and shoulders above anything INTC had/has. It sounds like you think Conroe, Woodcrest, and Merom will automatically have a high-end advantage over anything AMD has? Besides the fact that it is far from proven that NGA will be a homerun, there are a lot of other variables, such as price, availability and the risks associated with a new product to consider. On the availability side, besides the time lag in getting product to market that INTC will have to deal with, there's the problem that OEMs and the channel get into relationships with suppliers far in advance of product delivery. I think your expecting way too much too fast.
Still, I expect AMD will lose some sales they otherwise would have gotten. Unlike INTC though AMD has other options. I think that, given AMD's cost advantages, new capacity and desire to take market share, AMD will inevitably start competing more vigorously in the low to middle markets. Up to now, with limited capacity, it made a lot of sense for AMD to concentrate its efforts in those areas with the highest ASPs. Especially since there was so little competition at those points. With a more competitive INTC I fully expect AMD to shift gears once again and retake the low-end markets that INTC currently dominates because AMD didn't have the capacity to contest.
Anyway, all this speculation is based on NGA being a home run, anything less and AMD remains competitive in the high-end and expands into the low-middle markets. I particularly like the outlook for AMD's Dual Core 64b Turions. They should cause INTC fits for at least the next 6 months or until Merom arrives.
